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Nepal v West Indies T20I Series · 2025 · Men
27 Sept 2025 · T20
Sharjah Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 62%; Nepal batted first.
Nepal's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 63%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kyle Mayersrun out · Kushal Bhurtel · Karan KC1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kushal Bhurtel | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Amir Jangoocaught · Sundeep Jora · Lalit Rajbanshi 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sundeep Jora · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 19 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 86.36 |
| Ackeem Augustecaught · Dipendra Singh Airee · Nandan Yadav 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Dipendra Singh Airee · b Nandan Yadav | 15 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 214.29 |
| J Andrewcaught · Sundeep Jora · Rohit Kumar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sundeep Jora · b Rohit Kumar | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 45.45 |
| Keacy Cartyrun out · Aasif Sheikh, Dipendra Singh Airee · Kushal Bhurtel1 fours · 1 sixes |
| run out · Aasif Sheikh, Dipendra Singh Airee |
| 16 |
| 15 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 106.67 |
| Navin Bidaiseehit wicket · Kushal Bhurtel 1 fours · 1 sixes | hit wicket · b Kushal Bhurtel | 22 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 88.00 |
|---|
 Jason Holdercaught · Rohit Kumar · Kushal Bhurtel0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rohit Kumar · b Kushal Bhurtel | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Fabian Allencaught · Kushal Bhurtel · Dipendra Singh Airee 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kushal Bhurtel · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 19 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 135.71 |
|---|
| Akeal Hoseincaught · Gulsan Jha · Karan KC 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Gulsan Jha · b Karan KC | 18 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Obed McCoynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Karan KC0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Nandan Yadav0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Sompal Kami0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 10.75 | 1 | 1 |
| Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Rohit Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 4.25 | 1 | 0 |
1-5 (Kyle Mayers, 1.2) · 2-32 (Ackeem Auguste, 4.5) · 3-47 (J Andrew, 7.4) · 4-53 (Amir Jangoo, 8.5) · 5-68 (Keacy Carty, 12.2) · 6-76 (Jason Holder, 14.1) · 7-94 (Navin Bidaisee, 16.3) · 8-121 (Akeal Hosein, 18.3) · 9-129 (Fabian Allen, 20.0)
Recorded target: 149 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 12 | 27/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 33/2 |
| 6 | 7 | 40/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 45/2 |
| 8 | 7 | 52/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 53/4 |
| 10 | 3 | 56/4 |
| 11 | 2 | 58/4 |
| 12 | 10 | 68/4 |
| 13 | 3 | 71/5 |
| 14 | 5 | 76/5 |
| 15 | 3 | 79/6 |
| 16 | 12 | 91/6 |
| 17 | 9 | 100/7 |
| 18 | 19 | 119/7 |
| 19 | 2 | 121/8 |
| 20 | 8 | 129/9 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Kyle Mayers: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
