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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
25 Apr 2026 · ODI
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 68%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtelcaught · Aryansh Sharma · Ajay Kumar (2)4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aryansh Sharma · b Ajay Kumar (2) | 24 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 96.00 |
| Aasif Sheikhbowled · Khuzaima Tanveer 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Khuzaima Tanveer | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
| B Sharkicaught · Muhammad Shahdad · Khuzaima Tanveer 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Muhammad Shahdad · b Khuzaima Tanveer | 10 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 62.50 |
 Rohit Kumarlbw · Ajay Kumar (2)0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ajay Kumar (2) | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 18.18 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 0% to 70%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Haider Ali |
| 20 |
| 40 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireecaught · Aryansh Sharma · Junaid Siddique5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Aryansh Sharma · b Junaid Siddique | 75 | 90 | 5 | 2 | 83.33 |
|---|
 Aarif Sheikhbowled · Junaid Siddique1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Junaid Siddique | 15 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 48.39 |
|---|
 Sompal Kamicaught · Waseem Muhammad · Muhammad Shahdad1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Waseem Muhammad · b Muhammad Shahdad | 15 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
 Karan KCbowled · Ajay Kumar (2)1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Ajay Kumar (2) | 22 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 59.46 |
|---|
 Sandeep Lamichhanebowled · Junaid Siddique0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Junaid Siddique | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Lalit Rajbanshinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junaid Siddique3 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.2 | 3 | 33 | 3 | 3.54 | 2 | 0 |
| Khuzaima Tanveer1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 41 | 2 | 4.10 | 3 | 0 |
| Ajay Kumar (2)1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 34 | 3 | 3.78 | 1 | 0 |
| Haider Ali1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 3.70 | 1 | 0 |
| Nilansh Keswani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Muhammad Shahdad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-8 (Aasif Sheikh, 1.3) · 2-24 (B Sharki, 6.0) · 3-45 (Kushal Bhurtel, 8.2) · 4-49 (Rohit Kumar, 11.0) · 5-90 (Basir Ahamad, 20.3) · 6-120 (Aarif Sheikh, 29.0) · 7-151 (Sompal Kami, 35.5) · 8-193 (Karan KC, 44.5) · 9-197 (Sandeep Lamichhane, 46.3) · 10-200 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 48.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 9/1 |
| 5 | 13 | 22/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 24/2 |
| 7 | 11 | 35/2 |
| 8 | 10 | 45/2 |
| 9 | 0 | 45/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 48/3 |
| 11 | 1 | 49/4 |
| 12 | 0 | 49/4 |
| 13 | 1 | 50/4 |
| 14 | 7 | 57/4 |
| 15 | 2 | 59/4 |
| 16 | 5 | 64/4 |
| 17 | 8 | 72/4 |
| 18 | 6 | 78/4 |
| 19 | 6 | 84/4 |
| 20 | 6 | 90/4 |
| 21 | 0 | 90/5 |
| 22 | 2 | 92/5 |
| 23 | 4 | 96/5 |
| 24 | 6 | 102/5 |
| 25 | 5 | 107/5 |
| 26 | 5 | 112/5 |
| 27 | 2 | 114/5 |
| 28 | 6 | 120/5 |
| 29 | 0 | 120/6 |
| 30 | 1 | 121/6 |
| 31 | 3 | 124/6 |
| 32 | 5 | 129/6 |
| 33 | 2 | 131/6 |
| 34 | 6 | 137/6 |
| 35 | 6 | 143/6 |
| 36 | 8 | 151/7 |
| 37 | 7 | 158/7 |
| 38 | 2 | 160/7 |
| 39 | 1 | 161/7 |
| 40 | 7 | 168/7 |
| 41 | 5 | 173/7 |
| 42 | 10 | 183/7 |
| 43 | 5 | 188/7 |
| 44 | 2 | 190/7 |
| 45 | 3 | 193/8 |
| 46 | 4 | 197/8 |
| 47 | 1 | 198/9 |
| 48 | 2 | 200/9 |
| 49 | 0 | 200/10 |
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harpreet Singh: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
