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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
25 Apr 2026 · ODI
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 68%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aryansh Sharmalbw · Dipendra Singh Airee 4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 18 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 62.07 |
| Adeeb Usmanilbw · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Karan KC | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10.00 |
| Muhammad Shahdadlbw · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Karan KC | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Harpreet Singhlbw · Lalit Rajbanshi5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 39 | 52 | 5 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Akshdeep Nathcaught · Basir Ahamad · Sompal Kami 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Basir Ahamad · b Sompal Kami | 30 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 0% to 70%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 53 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 56.60 |
| Waseem Muhammadcaught · Aarif Sheikh · Sompal Kami 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Aarif Sheikh · b Sompal Kami | 34 | 51 | 3 | 1 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Nilansh Keswanistumped · Aasif Sheikh · Sandeep Lamichhane 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Aasif Sheikh · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 18 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 54.55 |
|---|
| Khuzaima Tanveerbowled · Sandeep Lamichhane 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8.33 |
|---|
| Haider Alicaught · Basir Ahamad · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Basir Ahamad · b Karan KC | 8 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 25.81 |
|---|
| Ajay Kumar (2)caught · Rohit Kumar · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rohit Kumar · b Karan KC | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Junaid Siddiquenot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 7* | 7 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Karan KC2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.2 | 2 | 19 | 4 | 2.04 | 0 | 0 |
 Sompal Kami1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 50 | 2 | 5.56 | 2 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 30 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 25 | 2 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Basir Ahamad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Rohit Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-3 (Adeeb Usmani, 2.2) · 2-5 (Muhammad Shahdad, 3.0) · 3-39 (Aryansh Sharma, 9.5) · 4-73 (Harpreet Singh, 18.1) · 5-126 (Akshdeep Nath, 32.1) · 6-135 (Waseem Muhammad, 34.3) · 7-138 (Khuzaima Tanveer, 37.3) · 8-154 (Haider Ali, 45.2) · 9-154 (Nilansh Keswani, 46.3) · 10-163 (Ajay Kumar (2), 48.2)
Recorded target: 201 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 5/2 |
| 4 | 4 | 9/2 |
| 5 | 6 | 15/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 19/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 24/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 29/2 |
| 9 | 6 | 35/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 39/3 |
| 11 | 15 | 54/3 |
| 12 | 3 | 57/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 60/3 |
| 14 | 0 | 60/3 |
| 15 | 6 | 66/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 69/3 |
| 17 | 0 | 69/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 73/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 76/4 |
| 20 | 7 | 83/4 |
| 21 | 1 | 84/4 |
| 22 | 2 | 86/4 |
| 23 | 5 | 91/4 |
| 24 | 3 | 94/4 |
| 25 | 9 | 103/4 |
| 26 | 7 | 110/4 |
| 27 | 1 | 111/4 |
| 28 | 3 | 114/4 |
| 29 | 2 | 116/4 |
| 30 | 2 | 118/4 |
| 31 | 6 | 124/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 126/4 |
| 33 | 1 | 127/5 |
| 34 | 3 | 130/5 |
| 35 | 5 | 135/6 |
| 36 | 2 | 137/6 |
| 37 | 0 | 137/6 |
| 38 | 1 | 138/7 |
| 39 | 1 | 139/7 |
| 40 | 1 | 140/7 |
| 41 | 3 | 143/7 |
| 42 | 4 | 147/7 |
| 43 | 3 | 150/7 |
| 44 | 3 | 153/7 |
| 45 | 1 | 154/7 |
| 46 | 0 | 154/8 |
| 47 | 0 | 154/9 |
| 48 | 9 | 163/9 |
| 49 | 0 | 163/10 |
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harpreet Singh: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
