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West Africa Trophy · 2025/26 · Men
4 Dec 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Nigeria more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nigeria started on 79%; Nigeria batted first.
Nigeria's chances ranged from 61% to 99% during the match (Zambia: 1% to 39%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sulaimon Runsewelbw · Soyeb Pendi 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Soyeb Pendi | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Selim Salaucaught · JV Chand · Aslam Bera 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · JV Chand · b Aslam Bera | 18 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 128.57 |
| Daniel Ajekuncaught · Mohammad Bhaidu · Aslam Bera 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Bhaidu · b Aslam Bera | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Isaac Danladicaught · Aslam Bera · Muhammad Asim (2) 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aslam Bera · b Muhammad Asim (2) | 27 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 128.57 |
| Sylvester Okpecaught · Ayaz Dadabhai · Muhammad Asim (2) 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ayaz Dadabhai · b Muhammad Asim (2) | 23 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 95.83 |
| Vincent Adewoyecaught · Soyeb Pendi · Muhammad Asim (2) 1 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Soyeb Pendi · b Muhammad Asim (2) |
| 9 |
| 10 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 90.00 |
| P Usenibowled · Javid Patel 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Javid Patel | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Isaac Okpenot out 3 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 35* | 19 | 3 | 2 | 184.21 |
|---|
| E Ndubudemcaught · Mohammad Bhaidu · Soyeb Pendi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Bhaidu · b Soyeb Pendi | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| O Isiyakunot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soyeb Pendi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Aslam Bera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Ayaz Dadabhai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Javid Patel0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 2 | 0 |
| JV Chand0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Muhammad Asim (2)0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 3 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-4 (Sulaimon Runsewe, 1.0) · 2-25 (Selim Salau, 3.4) · 3-36 (Daniel Ajekun, 5.3) · 4-76 (Isaac Danladi, 11.2) · 5-86 (Vincent Adewoye, 13.2) · 6-87 (Sylvester Okpe, 13.4) · 7-94 (P Useni, 14.4) · 8-101 (E Ndubudem, 16.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 19/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 26/2 |
| 5 | 7 | 33/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 38/3 |
| 7 | 6 | 44/3 |
| 8 | 7 | 51/3 |
| 9 | 9 | 60/3 |
| 10 | 10 | 70/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 74/3 |
| 12 | 3 | 77/4 |
| 13 | 7 | 84/4 |
| 14 | 5 | 89/6 |
| 15 | 5 | 94/7 |
| 16 | 5 | 99/7 |
| 17 | 3 | 102/8 |
| 18 | 9 | 111/8 |
| 19 | 7 | 118/8 |
| 20 | 20 | 138/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.