Texas Super KingsversusWashington Freedom

11 Jul 2026 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Washington Freedom won by 3 wickets

Texas Super Kings20.0 overs165/10 Washington Freedom19.4 overs166/7 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Texas Super Kings started on 43%; Texas Super Kings batted first.

Texas Super Kings’s chance of winning (%) · Washington Freedom is the rest

Texas Super Kings's chances ranged from 4% to 89% during the match (Washington Freedom: 11% to 96%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.6: AF Milne to BJ Dwarshuis, four by BJ Dwarshuis. Washington Freedom up from 40% to 67%.
2nd inns 18.2: Amshi de Silva to AJ Pienaar, AJ Pienaar out. Texas Super Kings up from 22% to 44%.
2nd inns 19.2: AF Milne to BJ Dwarshuis, six by BJ Dwarshuis. Washington Freedom up from 49% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Texas Super Kings165/10 Washington Freedom166/7

Innings 1