RwandaversusNigeria

9 Dec 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Rwanda won by 23 runs

Rwanda20.0 overs128/8 Nigeria20.0 overs105/9 Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1, Abuja ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nigeria more likely to win

22%Rwanda78%Nigeria

Why

In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Nigeria won 7 and Rwanda won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Nigeria rate stronger than Rwanda (1,493 vs 1,406 on our results rating)
Nigeria are playing at home in Nigeria

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rwanda started on 20%; Rwanda batted first.

Rwanda’s chance of winning (%) · Nigeria is the rest

Rwanda's chances ranged from 14% to 100% during the match (Nigeria: 0% to 86%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 9.3: Muhammad Nadir to Sulaimon Runsewe, Sulaimon Runsewe out. Rwanda up from 43% to 56%.
2nd inns 13.1: I Ntirenganya to P Useni, P Useni out. Rwanda up from 52% to 68%.
2nd inns 13.3: I Ntirenganya to VD Adewoye, VD Adewoye out. Rwanda up from 70% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rwanda128/8 Nigeria105/9

Innings 2

Nigeria

105/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nigeria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Selim Salaurun out · JM Iradukunda · I Ntirenganya 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · JM Iradukunda	5	9	0	0	55.56
Ali Rahmonbowled · E Rukiriza 5 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b E Rukiriza	26	30	5	0	86.67
Sulaimon Runsewelbw · Muhammad Nadir 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Muhammad Nadir	4	11	0	0	36.36
Isaac Danladirun out · O Tuyisenge · JM Iradukunda 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · O Tuyisenge	15	24	1	0	62.50
Sylvester Okpecaught · E Rukiriza · Muhammad Nadir 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · E Rukiriza · b Muhammad Nadir	4	6	0	0	66.67

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Z Bimenyimana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	2	5.25	1
I Ntirenganya0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	2	4.50	4
JM Iradukunda0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	24	0	6.00	4
Muhammad Nadir0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	16	2	4.00	2
E Rukiriza1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	23	1	5.75	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	13	21/0
3	5	26/0
4	6	32/0
5	6	38/0
6	2	40/1
7	0	40/2
8	2	42/2
9	4	46/2
10	4	50/3
11	4	54/3
12	4	58/4
13	16	74/4
14	1	75/6
15	8	83/6
16	3	86/7
17	1	87/9
18	5	92/9
19	3	95/9
20	10	105/9

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