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Australia tour of Sri Lanka · 2024/25 · Men
29 Jan 2025 · Test
Galle International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Usman Khawajacaught · Kusal Mendis · Prabath Jayasuriya16 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 232 | 352 | 16 | 1 | 65.91 |
 Travis Headcaught · Dinesh Chandimal · Prabath Jayasuriya10 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dinesh Chandimal · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 57 | 40 | 10 | 1 | 142.50 |
 Marnus Labuschagnecaught · Dhananjaya de Silva · Jeffrey Vandersay2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhananjaya de Silva · b Jeffrey Vandersay | 20 | 50 | 2 | 0 | 40.00 |
| lbw · b Jeffrey Vandersay |
| 141 |
| 251 |
| 12 |
| 2 |
| 56.18 |
 Josh Ingliscaught · Kamindu Mendis · Prabath Jayasuriya10 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 102 | 94 | 10 | 1 | 108.51 |
|---|
 Alex Careynot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 46* | 69 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Beau Webstercaught · Kamindu Mendis · Jeffrey Vandersay1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Jeffrey Vandersay | 23 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 46.00 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starcnot out2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 19* | 19 | 2 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 11 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 15.0 | 1 | 77 | 0 | 5.13 | 0 | 1 |
| Nishan Peiris1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 41.0 | 1 | 189 | 0 | 4.61 | 0 | 0 |
| Prabath Jayasuriya8 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 60.0 | 8 | 193 | 3 | 3.22 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffrey Vandersay0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 38.0 | 0 | 182 | 3 | 4.79 | 0 | 0 |
1-92 (Travis Head, 14.3) · 2-135 (Marnus Labuschagne, 30.0) · 3-401 (Steve Smith, 99.5) · 4-547 (Usman Khawaja, 128.3) · 5-570 (Josh Inglis, 133.0) · 6-629 (Beau Webster, 149.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 13/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 18/0 |
| 5 | 14 | 32/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 36/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 37/0 |
| 8 | 8 | 45/0 |
| 9 | 9 | 54/0 |
| 10 | 13 | 67/0 |
| 11 | 7 | 74/0 |
| 12 | 2 | 76/0 |
| 13 | 8 | 84/0 |
| 14 | 7 | 91/0 |
| 15 | 1 | 92/1 |
| 16 | 2 | 94/1 |
| 17 | 2 | 96/1 |
| 18 | 5 | 101/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 106/1 |
| 20 | 9 | 115/1 |
| 21 | 2 | 117/1 |
| 22 | 3 | 120/1 |
| 23 | 2 | 122/1 |
| 24 | 2 | 124/1 |
| 25 | 2 | 126/1 |
| 26 | 1 | 127/1 |
| 27 | 1 | 128/1 |
| 28 | 3 | 131/1 |
| 29 | 1 | 132/1 |
| 30 | 3 | 135/2 |
| 31 | 3 | 138/2 |
| 32 | 7 | 145/2 |
| 33 | 7 | 152/2 |
| 34 | 4 | 156/2 |
| 35 | 0 | 156/2 |
| 36 | 3 | 159/2 |
| 37 | 7 | 166/2 |
| 38 | 4 | 170/2 |
| 39 | 2 | 172/2 |
| 40 | 15 | 187/2 |
| 41 | 7 | 194/2 |
| 42 | 9 | 203/2 |
| 43 | 10 | 213/2 |
| 44 | 3 | 216/2 |
| 45 | 1 | 217/2 |
| 46 | 3 | 220/2 |
| 47 | 2 | 222/2 |
| 48 | 1 | 223/2 |
| 49 | 8 | 231/2 |
| 50 | 5 | 236/2 |
| 51 | 3 | 239/2 |
| 52 | 0 | 239/2 |
| 53 | 0 | 239/2 |
| 54 | 4 | 243/2 |
| 55 | 5 | 248/2 |
| 56 | 1 | 249/2 |
| 57 | 5 | 254/2 |
| 58 | 5 | 259/2 |
| 59 | 2 | 261/2 |
| 60 | 0 | 261/2 |
| 61 | 4 | 265/2 |
| 62 | 0 | 265/2 |
| 63 | 2 | 267/2 |
| 64 | 0 | 267/2 |
| 65 | 2 | 269/2 |
| 66 | 0 | 269/2 |
| 67 | 4 | 273/2 |
| 68 | 2 | 275/2 |
| 69 | 4 | 279/2 |
| 70 | 4 | 283/2 |
| 71 | 4 | 287/2 |
| 72 | 0 | 287/2 |
| 73 | 3 | 290/2 |
| 74 | 4 | 294/2 |
| 75 | 6 | 300/2 |
| 76 | 4 | 304/2 |
| 77 | 9 | 313/2 |
| 78 | 6 | 319/2 |
| 79 | 1 | 320/2 |
| 80 | 2 | 322/2 |
| 81 | 8 | 330/2 |
| 82 | 2 | 332/2 |
| 83 | 2 | 334/2 |
| 84 | 0 | 334/2 |
| 85 | 2 | 336/2 |
| 86 | 6 | 342/2 |
| 87 | 1 | 343/2 |
| 88 | 3 | 346/2 |
| 89 | 2 | 348/2 |
| 90 | 9 | 357/2 |
| 91 | 1 | 358/2 |
| 92 | 4 | 362/2 |
| 93 | 3 | 365/2 |
| 94 | 2 | 367/2 |
| 95 | 13 | 380/2 |
| 96 | 4 | 384/2 |
| 97 | 4 | 388/2 |
| 98 | 7 | 395/2 |
| 99 | 4 | 399/2 |
| 100 | 6 | 405/3 |
| 101 | 1 | 406/3 |
| 102 | 4 | 410/3 |
| 103 | 3 | 413/3 |
| 104 | 3 | 416/3 |
| 105 | 6 | 422/3 |
| 106 | 6 | 428/3 |
| 107 | 10 | 438/3 |
| 108 | 7 | 445/3 |
| 109 | 10 | 455/3 |
| 110 | 6 | 461/3 |
| 111 | 4 | 465/3 |
| 112 | 5 | 470/3 |
| 113 | 1 | 471/3 |
| 114 | 4 | 475/3 |
| 115 | 4 | 479/3 |
| 116 | 3 | 482/3 |
| 117 | 5 | 487/3 |
| 118 | 5 | 492/3 |
| 119 | 8 | 500/3 |
| 120 | 7 | 507/3 |
| 121 | 1 | 508/3 |
| 122 | 5 | 513/3 |
| 123 | 3 | 516/3 |
| 124 | 2 | 518/3 |
| 125 | 3 | 521/3 |
| 126 | 7 | 528/3 |
| 127 | 6 | 534/3 |
| 128 | 13 | 547/3 |
| 129 | 2 | 549/4 |
| 130 | 5 | 554/4 |
| 131 | 6 | 560/4 |
| 132 | 7 | 567/4 |
| 133 | 3 | 570/5 |
| 134 | 2 | 572/5 |
| 135 | 2 | 574/5 |
| 136 | 3 | 577/5 |
| 137 | 2 | 579/5 |
| 138 | 5 | 584/5 |
| 139 | 0 | 584/5 |
| 140 | 5 | 589/5 |
| 141 | 3 | 592/5 |
| 142 | 7 | 599/5 |
| 143 | 1 | 600/5 |
| 144 | 5 | 605/5 |
| 145 | 3 | 608/5 |
| 146 | 3 | 611/5 |
| 147 | 10 | 621/5 |
| 148 | 6 | 627/5 |
| 149 | 1 | 628/5 |
| 150 | 4 | 632/6 |
| 151 | 5 | 637/6 |
| 152 | 8 | 645/6 |
| 153 | 2 | 647/6 |
| 154 | 7 | 654/6 |
Beau Webster: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Todd Murphy: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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