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Australia tour of Sri Lanka · 2024/25 · Men
29 Jan 2025 · Test
Galle International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oshada Fernandolbw · Matthew Kuhnemann 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Matthew Kuhnemann | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
 Dimuth Karunaratnecaught · NA McSweeney · Mitchell Starc1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · NA McSweeney · b Mitchell Starc | 7 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 53.85 |
 Dinesh Chandimallbw · Nathan Lyon9 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nathan Lyon | 72 | 139 | 9 | 0 | 51.80 |
 Angelo Mathewscaught · Travis Head · Nathan Lyon1 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Travis Head · b Nathan Lyon |
| 7 |
| 18 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 38.89 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Alex Carey · Mitchell Starc 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Mitchell Starc | 15 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 39.47 |
|---|
| Dhananjaya de Silvastumped · Alex Carey · Matthew Kuhnemann 3 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Alex Carey · b Matthew Kuhnemann | 22 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 64.71 |
|---|
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Todd Murphy · Matthew Kuhnemann 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Todd Murphy · b Matthew Kuhnemann | 21 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 52.50 |
|---|
| Prabath Jayasuriyastumped · Alex Carey · Matthew Kuhnemann 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Alex Carey · b Matthew Kuhnemann | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Jeffrey Vandersaycaught · Mitchell Starc · Matthew Kuhnemann 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Starc · b Matthew Kuhnemann | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Nishan Peiriscaught · Josh Inglis · Nathan Lyon 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Nathan Lyon | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 1.63 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Kuhnemann3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 18.2 | 3 | 63 | 5 | 3.44 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathan Lyon3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 20.0 | 3 | 57 | 3 | 2.85 | 0 | 0 |
 Todd Murphy1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 4.67 | 0 | 1 |
1-7 (Oshada Fernando, 2.0) · 2-15 (Dimuth Karunaratne, 4.2) · 3-30 (Angelo Mathews, 9.3) · 4-67 (Kamindu Mendis, 20.3) · 5-107 (Dhananjaya de Silva, 32.3) · 6-156 (Kusal Mendis, 48.1) · 7-156 (Dinesh Chandimal, 49.2) · 8-156 (Prabath Jayasuriya, 50.1) · 9-161 (Nishan Peiris, 51.5) · 10-165 (Jeffrey Vandersay, 52.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 20/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 25/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 28/2 |
| 8 | 0 | 28/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 30/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 31/3 |
| 11 | 0 | 31/3 |
| 12 | 0 | 31/3 |
| 13 | 12 | 43/3 |
| 14 | 1 | 44/3 |
| 15 | 0 | 44/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 47/3 |
| 17 | 0 | 47/3 |
| 18 | 14 | 61/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 63/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 66/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 67/4 |
| 22 | 1 | 68/4 |
| 23 | 1 | 69/4 |
| 24 | 4 | 73/4 |
| 25 | 4 | 77/4 |
| 26 | 2 | 79/4 |
| 27 | 0 | 79/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 81/4 |
| 29 | 6 | 87/4 |
| 30 | 6 | 93/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 95/4 |
| 32 | 11 | 106/4 |
| 33 | 1 | 107/5 |
| 34 | 5 | 112/5 |
| 35 | 2 | 114/5 |
| 36 | 1 | 115/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 118/5 |
| 38 | 5 | 123/5 |
| 39 | 4 | 127/5 |
| 40 | 1 | 128/5 |
| 41 | 6 | 134/5 |
| 42 | 2 | 136/5 |
| 43 | 2 | 138/5 |
| 44 | 5 | 143/5 |
| 45 | 1 | 144/5 |
| 46 | 1 | 145/5 |
| 47 | 7 | 152/5 |
| 48 | 4 | 156/5 |
| 49 | 0 | 156/6 |
| 50 | 0 | 156/7 |
| 51 | 1 | 157/8 |
| 52 | 4 | 161/9 |
| 53 | 4 | 165/10 |
Beau Webster: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Todd Murphy: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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