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Germany Women's T20I Tri-Series · 2024 · Women
28 Jul 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Italy more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Germany started on 35%; Germany batted first.
Germany's chances ranged from 0% to 38% during the match (Italy: 62% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Rathnayakecaught · Janet Ronalds · Emma Bargna 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Janet Ronalds · b Emma Bargna | 20 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 83.33 |
| EL Bartramcaught · Emma Bargna · Anuradha Doddaballapur 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Emma Bargna · b Anuradha Doddaballapur | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Ilenia Simsnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 22* | 30 | 0 | 0 | 73.33 |
| K Peddrickcaught and bowled · Emma Bargna 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Emma Bargna | 9 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 81.82 |
| C Mahamalagenot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 29* | 34 | 3 | 0 | 85.29 |
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 12 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anuradha Doddaballapur0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 3.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Janet Ronalds0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 8.67 | 1 | 1 |
| Emma Bargna0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Stephanie Frohnmayer0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 2 | 0 |
| S Kolcharam0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 4.00 | 3 | 0 |
| A Kohli0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.4 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 8.63 | 1 | 0 |
| Christina Gough0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-30 (EL Bartram, 4.1) · 2-34 (M Rathnayake, 5.4) · 3-48 (K Peddrick, 7.5)
Recorded target: 101 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 17/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 30/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 34/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 35/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 42/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 48/3 |
| 9 | 7 | 55/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 57/3 |
| 11 | 3 | 60/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 62/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 67/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 70/3 |
| 15 | 6 | 76/3 |
| 16 | 13 | 89/3 |
| 17 | 6 | 95/3 |
| 18 | 7 | 102/3 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.