Barbados RoyalsversusGuyana Amazon Warriors

26 Aug 2024 · T20

Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Barbados Royals won by 17 runs

Barbados Royals20.0 overs101/8 Guyana Amazon Warriors20.0 overs84/9 Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Barbados Royals started on 53%; Barbados Royals batted first.

Barbados Royals’s chance of winning (%) · Guyana Amazon Warriors is the rest

Barbados Royals's chances ranged from 20% to 100% during the match (Guyana Amazon Warriors: 0% to 81%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.6: HK Matthews to SA Campbelle, SA Campbelle out. Barbados Royals up from 30% to 43%.
2nd inns 8.4: A Wellington to CL Tryon, CL Tryon out. Barbados Royals up from 35% to 52%.
2nd inns 11.1: HK Matthews to EA Burns, EA Burns out. Barbados Royals up from 53% to 74%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.