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ICC Women's World Cup Qualifier · 2025 · Women
9 Apr 2025 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 61%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muneeba Alicaught · Louise Little · Jane Maguire 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Louise Little · b Jane Maguire | 32 | 59 | 4 | 0 | 54.24 |
| Gull Ferozacaught · CE Coulter Reilly · Jane Maguire 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · CE Coulter Reilly · b Jane Maguire | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
| Sidra Ameenlbw · Cara Murray 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Cara Murray | 51 | 112 | 3 | 0 | 45.54 |
| Aliya Riazcaught · Louise Little · Cara Murray 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Louise Little · b Cara Murray | 52 | 58 | 4 | 1 | 89.66 |
| Natalia Pervaizrun out · Amy Hunter, Laura Delany · Arlene Kelly 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Amy Hunter, Laura Delany | 12 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 63.16 |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 16% to 99% during the match (Ireland: 1% to 84%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Arlene Kelly |
| 19 |
| 15 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 126.67 |
| Sidra Nawazcaught · Gaby Lewis · Jane Maguire 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gaby Lewis · b Jane Maguire | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Rameen Shamimrun out · Gaby Lewis, Amy Hunter · Orla Prendergast 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Gaby Lewis, Amy Hunter | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| Diana Baigcaught · Gaby Lewis · Arlene Kelly 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gaby Lewis · b Arlene Kelly | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Nashra Sandhunot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Sadia Iqbalcaught · Gaby Lewis · Orla Prendergast 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gaby Lewis · b Orla Prendergast | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 27 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orla Prendergast1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 23 | 1 | 3.29 | 3 | 0 |
| Jane Maguire1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 33 | 3 | 3.30 | 5 | 0 |
| Arlene Kelly1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 34 | 2 | 3.78 | 3 | 0 |
| Louise Little0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 6.40 | 3 | 0 |
| Laura Delany0 maidens · 12 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 5.63 | 12 | 1 |
| Cara Murray0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 2 | 4.90 | 1 | 0 |
1-4 (Gull Feroza, 1.3) · 2-81 (Muneeba Ali, 21.0) · 3-153 (Sidra Ameen, 36.0) · 4-175 (Aliya Riaz, 41.1) · 5-181 (Natalia Pervaiz, 42.1) · 6-194 (Sidra Nawaz, 44.0) · 7-200 (Fatima Sana, 45.0) · 8-202 (Diana Baig, 46.2) · 9-213 (Rameen Shamim, 48.3) · 10-217 (Sadia Iqbal, 49.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 8/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 13/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 14/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 19/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 25/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 27/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 32/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 33/1 |
| 12 | 9 | 42/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 50/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 51/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 54/1 |
| 16 | 9 | 63/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 67/1 |
| 18 | 2 | 69/1 |
| 19 | 4 | 73/1 |
| 20 | 6 | 79/1 |
| 21 | 2 | 81/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 83/2 |
| 23 | 2 | 85/2 |
| 24 | 3 | 88/2 |
| 25 | 8 | 96/2 |
| 26 | 1 | 97/2 |
| 27 | 4 | 101/2 |
| 28 | 4 | 105/2 |
| 29 | 3 | 108/2 |
| 30 | 7 | 115/2 |
| 31 | 10 | 125/2 |
| 32 | 5 | 130/2 |
| 33 | 4 | 134/2 |
| 34 | 6 | 140/2 |
| 35 | 6 | 146/2 |
| 36 | 7 | 153/3 |
| 37 | 0 | 153/3 |
| 38 | 2 | 155/3 |
| 39 | 5 | 160/3 |
| 40 | 6 | 166/3 |
| 41 | 9 | 175/3 |
| 42 | 6 | 181/4 |
| 43 | 9 | 190/5 |
| 44 | 4 | 194/6 |
| 45 | 6 | 200/7 |
| 46 | 2 | 202/7 |
| 47 | 1 | 203/8 |
| 48 | 10 | 213/8 |
| 49 | 4 | 217/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.