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ICC Women's World Cup Qualifier · 2025 · Women
9 Apr 2025 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 61%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Forbeslbw · Diana Baig 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Diana Baig | 9 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 31.03 |
| Gaby Lewislbw · Nashra Sandhu 5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nashra Sandhu | 44 | 67 | 5 | 0 | 65.67 |
| Amy Hunterbowled · Nashra Sandhu 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nashra Sandhu | 44 | 54 | 4 | 0 | 81.48 |
| Orla Prendergastbowled · Sadia Iqbal 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sadia Iqbal | 37 | 53 | 3 | 0 | 69.81 |
| Laura Delanybowled · Nashra Sandhu 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nashra Sandhu | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Leah Paullbw · Sadia Iqbal1 fours · 0 sixes |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 16% to 99% during the match (Ireland: 1% to 84%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Sadia Iqbal |
| 14 |
| 21 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| CE Coulter Reillycaught and bowled · Diana Baig 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Diana Baig | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Louise Littlecaught and bowled · Diana Baig 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Diana Baig | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 111.11 |
|---|
| Arlene Kellybowled · Diana Baig 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Diana Baig | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Jane Maguirenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 13 | 0 | 0 | 46.15 |
|---|
| Cara Murrayrun out · Fatima Sana, Nashra Sandhu · Nashra Sandhu 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Fatima Sana, Nashra Sandhu | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sadia Iqbal1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 33 | 2 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Fatima Sana0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 3.43 | 4 | 0 |
| Diana Baig0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 35 | 4 | 3.89 | 3 | 0 |
| Rameen Shamim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 4.30 | 0 | 0 |
| Nashra Sandhu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 41 | 3 | 4.56 | 1 | 0 |
1-27 (Sarah Forbes, 8.1) · 2-96 (Gaby Lewis, 23.1) · 3-113 (Amy Hunter, 28.0) · 4-119 (Laura Delany, 29.4) · 5-153 (Leah Paul, 37.1) · 6-159 (CE Coulter Reilly, 38.4) · 7-165 (Orla Prendergast, 40.0) · 8-167 (Arlene Kelly, 40.3) · 9-178 (Louise Little, 43.0) · 10-179 (Cara Murray, 44.0)
Recorded target: 218 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 9/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 14/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 16/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 21/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 26/0 |
| 9 | 3 | 29/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 33/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 34/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 35/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 37/1 |
| 14 | 8 | 45/1 |
| 15 | 10 | 55/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 58/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 62/1 |
| 18 | 7 | 69/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 72/1 |
| 20 | 8 | 80/1 |
| 21 | 8 | 88/1 |
| 22 | 2 | 90/1 |
| 23 | 6 | 96/1 |
| 24 | 1 | 97/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 101/2 |
| 26 | 4 | 105/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 107/2 |
| 28 | 6 | 113/3 |
| 29 | 1 | 114/3 |
| 30 | 9 | 123/4 |
| 31 | 5 | 128/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 130/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 136/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 141/4 |
| 35 | 3 | 144/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 147/4 |
| 37 | 6 | 153/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 157/5 |
| 39 | 4 | 161/6 |
| 40 | 4 | 165/7 |
| 41 | 3 | 168/8 |
| 42 | 5 | 173/8 |
| 43 | 5 | 178/9 |
| 44 | 1 | 179/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.