NetherlandsversusGuernsey

9 Jul 2025 · T20

Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Netherlands won by 73 runs

Netherlands20.0 overs172/1 Guernsey20.0 overs99/9 Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Netherlands more likely to win

67%Netherlands33%Guernsey

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than Guernsey (1,535 vs 1,456 on our results rating)
Netherlands are playing at home in the Netherlands

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 66%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Guernsey is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 67% to 100% during the match (Guernsey: 0% to 33%).

Biggest swings

6.5: M Dale-Bradley to M Levitt, M Levitt out. Guernsey up from 19% to 24%.
19.6: LT Bichard to SA Edwards, 1 run to SA Edwards. Guernsey up from 16% to 23%.
2nd inns 4.2: PA van Meekeren to B Fitchet, B Fitchet out. Netherlands up from 83% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands172/1 Guernsey99/9

Innings 2

Guernsey

99/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Guernsey batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Ben Fitchetcaught · Noah Croes · Paul van Meekeren 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Noah Croes · b Paul van Meekeren	3	13	0	0	23.08
M Dale-Bradleycaught · Scott Edwards · Saqib Zulfiqar 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Scott Edwards · b Saqib Zulfiqar	26	25	3	0	104.00
Tom Nightingalelbw · Bas de Leede 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Bas de Leede	6	6	1	0	100.00
Matthew Stokesrun out · Bas de Leede, Saqib Zulfiqar · Saqib Zulfiqar 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Bas de Leede, Saqib Zulfiqar	2	3	0	0	66.67
Oliver Nightingalecaught · Saqib Zulfiqar · Roelof van der Merwe 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Saqib Zulfiqar · b Roelof van der Merwe	3	7	0

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	3	0	1.50	2
Kyle Klein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	9	0	4.50	0
Paul van Meekeren0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	1	7.75	0
Bas de Leede0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	7	1	7.00	0
Saqib Zulfiqar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	2	4.00	0
Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	7	1	3.50	0
Zach Lion-Cachet0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	0	5.00	0
Michael Levitt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	11	3	3.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	5	7/0
3	1	8/0
4	4	12/0
5	6	18/1
6	7	25/2
7	12	37/2
8	3	40/3
9	3	43/4
10	5	48/5
11	4	52/5
12	5	57/5
13	6	63/5
14	5	68/6
15	8	76/6
16	5	81/7
17	2	83/7
18	4	87/8
19	8	95/8
20	4	99/9

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