Adelaide StrikersversusMelbourne Stars

31 Oct 2026 · T20

Karen Rolton Oval, Adelaide · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Adelaide Strikers won by 21 runs

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs185/2 Melbourne Stars20.0 overs164/7 Karen Rolton Oval, Adelaide ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 55%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Stars is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Melbourne Stars: 0% to 56%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.3: A Wellington to MM Lanning, MM Lanning out. Adelaide Strikers up from 45% to 59%.
2nd inns 8.6: A Wellington to AE Jones, AE Jones out. Adelaide Strikers up from 59% to 71%.
2nd inns 14.4: A Wellington to A Sutherland, A Sutherland out. Adelaide Strikers up from 67% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match highlights

All highlights →

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Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Stars Highlights | WBBL|12 | Fox Cricket

Fox Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-31

Adelaide Strikers185/2 Melbourne Stars164/7

Innings 1