**Boland Park, Paarl**
Photo: Jshecket
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

Paarl RoyalsversusPretoria Capitals

25 Jan 2025 · T20

Boland Park, Paarl · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Paarl Royals won by 11 runs

Paarl Royals20.0 overs140/4 Pretoria Capitals20.0 overs129/7 Boland Park, Paarl ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Paarl Royals started on 57%; Paarl Royals batted first.

Paarl Royals’s chance of winning (%) · Pretoria Capitals is the rest

Paarl Royals's chances ranged from 25% to 100% during the match (Pretoria Capitals: 0% to 75%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.4: Mujeeb Ur Rahman to K Verreynne, K Verreynne out. Paarl Royals up from 49% to 63%.
2nd inns 16.6: Mujeeb Ur Rahman to JDS Neesham, four by JDS Neesham. Pretoria Capitals up from 34% to 50%.
2nd inns 17.3: JE Root to JDS Neesham, JDS Neesham out. Paarl Royals up from 61% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.