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Photo: Krish Dulal
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Canada tour of Nepal · 2023/24 · Men
10 Feb 2024 · ODI
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 21%; Canada batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anil Sahlbw · IS Sohi 7 fours · 3 sixes | lbw · b IS Sohi | 50 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 250.00 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · SA Wijeratne · IS Sohi 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · SA Wijeratne · b IS Sohi | 10 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
 Rohit Kumarcaught · Shreyas Movva · Saad Bin Zafar8 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Saad Bin Zafar | 87 | 101 | 8 | 4 | 86.14 |
| D Khanalcaught and bowled · Harsh Thaker 7 fours · 2 sixes | caught and bowled · b Harsh Thaker | 76 | 81 | 7 | 2 | 93.83 |
| B Sharkicaught · Shreyas Movva · Dilpreet Bajwa 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Dilpreet Bajwa | 23 |
Canada's chances ranged from 0% to 58% during the match (Nepal: 42% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 21 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 109.52 |
| Pawan Sarrafcaught · Shreyas Movva · Harsh Thaker 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Harsh Thaker | 14 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 175.00 |
|---|
 Kushal Mallanot out0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 9* | 14 | 0 | 1 | 64.29 |
|---|
 Sompal Kaminot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 10 | 1 | 0 | 90.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uday Bhagwan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 10.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.1 | 0 | 79 | 2 | 8.62 | 0 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 3.30 | 2 | 0 |
| IS Sohi0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 48 | 2 | 6.86 | 3 | 0 |
| Shahid Ahmadzai2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 3.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Navneet Dhaliwal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 20.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dilpreet Bajwa0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 4.67 | 1 | 0 |
1-55 (Aasif Sheikh, 4.5) · 2-64 (Anil Sah, 6.3) · 3-214 (D Khanal, 33.5) · 4-253 (B Sharki, 39.3) · 5-261 (Rohit Kumar, 40.2) · 6-267 (Pawan Sarraf, 41.5)
Recorded target: 286 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 15 | 26/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 37/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 41/0 |
| 5 | 14 | 55/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 58/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 65/2 |
| 8 | 0 | 65/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 69/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 72/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 74/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 75/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 76/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 78/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 78/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 84/2 |
| 17 | 0 | 84/2 |
| 18 | 10 | 94/2 |
| 19 | 2 | 96/2 |
| 20 | 9 | 105/2 |
| 21 | 7 | 112/2 |
| 22 | 12 | 124/2 |
| 23 | 20 | 144/2 |
| 24 | 6 | 150/2 |
| 25 | 9 | 159/2 |
| 26 | 3 | 162/2 |
| 27 | 5 | 167/2 |
| 28 | 3 | 170/2 |
| 29 | 8 | 178/2 |
| 30 | 10 | 188/2 |
| 31 | 8 | 196/2 |
| 32 | 6 | 202/2 |
| 33 | 11 | 213/2 |
| 34 | 1 | 214/3 |
| 35 | 5 | 219/3 |
| 36 | 10 | 229/3 |
| 37 | 6 | 235/3 |
| 38 | 11 | 246/3 |
| 39 | 5 | 251/3 |
| 40 | 10 | 261/4 |
| 41 | 0 | 261/5 |
| 42 | 6 | 267/6 |
| 43 | 1 | 268/6 |
| 44 | 9 | 277/6 |
| 45 | 4 | 281/6 |
| 46 | 6 | 287/6 |
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
