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Bermuda tour of Argentina · 2024/25 · Men
2 Dec 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Bermuda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bermuda started on 68%; Bermuda batted first.
Bermuda's chances ranged from 57% to 100% during the match (Argentina: 0% to 43%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terryn Fraycaught · AR Perez Rivero · Franz Bur 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · AR Perez Rivero · b Franz Bur | 43 | 39 | 1 | 1 | 110.26 |
| AD Dorecaught · Santiago Duggan · Hernán Fennell 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Santiago Duggan · b Hernán Fennell | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Tre Manderslbw · Santiago Duggan 3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Santiago Duggan | 22 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 122.22 |
| Onais Bascomerun out · A Mustafa, Franz Bur · Franz Bur 0 fours · 5 sixes | run out · A Mustafa, Franz Bur | 49 | 31 | 0 | 5 | 158.06 |
| D Sabirrun out · AR Perez Rivero · AR Perez Rivero 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · AR Perez Rivero | 11 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 122.22 |
| not out |
| 8* |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 133.33 |
| Derrick Brangmancaught · Santiago Iturbe · AR Perez Rivero 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Santiago Iturbe · b AR Perez Rivero | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 108.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 3 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Kirschbaum0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 10.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Hernán Fennell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Santiago Duggan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.25 | 1 | 0 |
| S Kruger0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Franz Bur0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
| AR Perez Rivero0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
1-6 (AD Dore, 1.3) · 2-44 (Tre Manders, 6.4) · 3-117 (Terryn Fray, 14.5) · 4-126 (Onais Bascome, 16.4) · 5-133 (D Sabir, 17.1) · 6-154 (Derrick Brangman, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 11/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 20/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 23/1 |
| 6 | 14 | 37/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 45/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 51/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 60/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 64/2 |
| 11 | 15 | 79/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 85/2 |
| 13 | 15 | 100/2 |
| 14 | 11 | 111/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 117/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 122/3 |
| 17 | 10 | 132/4 |
| 18 | 3 | 135/5 |
| 19 | 7 | 142/5 |
| 20 | 12 | 154/6 |
Hernán Fennell: BugWarp · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alejandro Ferguson: BugWarp · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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