IndiaversusZimbabwe

14 Jul 2024 · T20

Harare Sports Club · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 42 runs

India20.0 overs167/6 Zimbabwe18.3 overs125/10 Harare Sports Club ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

81%India19%Zimbabwe

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,769 vs 1,545 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 7 and Zimbabwe won 3
Zimbabwe are playing at home in Zimbabwe

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 79%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Zimbabwe is the rest

India's chances ranged from 68% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 32%).

Biggest swings

0.1: Sikandar Raza to YBK Jaiswal, six by YBK Jaiswal. India up from 80% to 88%.
4.6: R Ngarava to Shubman Gill, Shubman Gill out. Zimbabwe up from 23% to 31%.
2nd inns 8.2: Washington Sundar to T Marumani, T Marumani out. India up from 77% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India167/6 Zimbabwe125/10

Innings 2

Zimbabwe

125/1018.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Wesley Madheverebowled · Mukesh Kumar 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Mukesh Kumar	0	3	0	0	0.00
Tadiwanashe Marumanilbw · Washington Sundar 5 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Washington Sundar	27	24	5	0	112.50
Brian Bennettcaught · Shivam Dube · Mukesh Kumar 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shivam Dube · b Mukesh Kumar	10	8	2	0	125.00
Dion Myerscaught · Abhishek Sharma · Shivam Dube 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Abhishek Sharma · b Shivam Dube	34	32	4	1	106.25
Sikandar Razarun out · Shivam Dube · Ravi Bishnoi 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Shivam Dube

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Mukesh Kumar0 maidens · 3 wides · 2 no-balls	3.3	22	4	6.29	3	2
Tushar Deshpande0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	25	1	8.33	0	0
Ravi Bishnoi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	0	7.67	0	0
Washington Sundar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	7	1	3.50	0	0
Abhishek Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	20	1	6.67	0	0
Shivam Dube0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	13	15/1
3	4	19/2
4	1	20/2
5	11	31/2
6	16	47/2
7	5	52/2
8	7	59/2
9	2	61/3
10	8	69/3
11	6	75/3
12	7	82/3
13	4	86/4
14	3	89/5
15	5	94/6
16	5	99/7
17	10	109/7
18	11	120/8
19	5	125/10

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