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ICC Women's World Cup Qualifier · 2025 · Women
19 Apr 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 43%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dilara Aktercaught · Shawaal Zulfiqar · Sadia Iqbal 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shawaal Zulfiqar · b Sadia Iqbal | 13 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 92.86 |
 Fargana Hoquebowled · Fatima Sana0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Fatima Sana | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Sharmin Akhtercaught · Muneeba Ali · Diana Baig4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Muneeba Ali · b Diana Baig | 24 | 47 | 4 | 0 | 51.06 |
 Nigar Sultanalbw · Fatima Sana0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Fatima Sana | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 49% during the match (Pakistan: 51% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 0 |
| 16.67 |
| Ritu Monistumped · Sidra Nawaz · Nashra Sandhu 5 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Sidra Nawaz · b Nashra Sandhu | 48 | 76 | 5 | 0 | 63.16 |
|---|
 Nahida Akterlbw · Rameen Shamim2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Rameen Shamim | 19 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 37.25 |
|---|
 Fahima Khatunnot out4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 44* | 53 | 4 | 0 | 83.02 |
|---|
| Shorna Aktercaught · Sidra Nawaz · Sadia Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sidra Nawaz · b Sadia Iqbal | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Jannatul Ferdusstumped · Sidra Nawaz · Sadia Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Sidra Nawaz · b Sadia Iqbal | 6 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Rabeya Khanbowled · Diana Baig 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Diana Baig | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
 Marufa Akternot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 9 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 13 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fatima Sana0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 45 | 2 | 4.50 | 5 | 0 |
| Sadia Iqbal1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 28 | 3 | 2.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Rameen Shamim0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Diana Baig1 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 45 | 2 | 4.50 | 7 | 0 |
| Nashra Sandhu1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 3.40 | 0 | 0 |
1-10 (Fargana Hoque, 2.2) · 2-19 (Dilara Akter, 5.1) · 3-21 (Nigar Sultana, 6.4) · 4-65 (Sharmin Akhter, 18.0) · 5-109 (Nahida Akter, 31.5) · 6-136 (Ritu Moni, 38.2) · 7-141 (Shorna Akter, 39.2) · 8-157 (Jannatul Ferdus, 44.5) · 9-166 (Rabeya Khan, 47.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 18/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 19/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 20/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 21/3 |
| 8 | 1 | 22/3 |
| 9 | 9 | 31/3 |
| 10 | 1 | 32/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 37/3 |
| 12 | 3 | 40/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 45/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 53/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 54/3 |
| 16 | 6 | 60/3 |
| 17 | 1 | 61/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 65/4 |
| 19 | 1 | 66/4 |
| 20 | 4 | 70/4 |
| 21 | 5 | 75/4 |
| 22 | 1 | 76/4 |
| 23 | 0 | 76/4 |
| 24 | 1 | 77/4 |
| 25 | 13 | 90/4 |
| 26 | 3 | 93/4 |
| 27 | 3 | 96/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 98/4 |
| 29 | 3 | 101/4 |
| 30 | 3 | 104/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 108/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 110/5 |
| 33 | 7 | 117/5 |
| 34 | 1 | 118/5 |
| 35 | 7 | 125/5 |
| 36 | 1 | 126/5 |
| 37 | 2 | 128/5 |
| 38 | 7 | 135/5 |
| 39 | 5 | 140/6 |
| 40 | 1 | 141/7 |
| 41 | 3 | 144/7 |
| 42 | 5 | 149/7 |
| 43 | 5 | 154/7 |
| 44 | 2 | 156/7 |
| 45 | 1 | 157/8 |
| 46 | 5 | 162/8 |
| 47 | 4 | 166/8 |
| 48 | 0 | 166/9 |
| 49 | 8 | 174/9 |
| 50 | 4 | 178/9 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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