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Photo: Birdy10
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Netherlands Tri-Nation T20I Series · 2024 · Men
27 Aug 2024 · T20
Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photographRecorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 67%; United States of America batted first.
United States of America's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (Canada: 0% to 38%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Johnsonlbw · Nosthush Kenjige 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nosthush Kenjige | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kanwarpal Tathgurrun out · Harmeet Singh, Nosthush Kenjige · Harmeet Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Harmeet Singh, Nosthush Kenjige | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
| Dilpreet Bajwalbw · Aaron Jones 6 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b Aaron Jones | 56 | 41 | 6 | 2 | 136.59 |
| Nicholas Kirtoncaught · Nitish Kumar · Nosthush Kenjige 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nitish Kumar · b Nosthush Kenjige | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
| Shreyas Movvacaught · Monank Patel · Aaron Jones 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Monank Patel · b Aaron Jones | 37 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 123.33 |
| Harsh Thakercaught · Nosthush Kenjige · Shadley van Schalkwyk 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Nosthush Kenjige · b Shadley van Schalkwyk |
| 13 |
| 15 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 86.67 |
| Dillon Heyligercaught · Monank Patel · Shadley van Schalkwyk 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Monank Patel · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 20 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 181.82 |
|---|
| Akhil Kumarnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 6 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
|---|
 Saad Bin Zafarnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nosthush Kenjige0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Jasdeep Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 11.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Harmeet Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Shadley van Schalkwyk0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 2 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
| J Drysdale0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Aaron Johnson, 0.3) · 2-25 (Kanwarpal Tathgur, 3.3) · 3-31 (Nicholas Kirton, 4.3) · 4-99 (Dilpreet Bajwa, 13.2) · 5-108 (Shreyas Movva, 15.1) · 6-137 (Dillon Heyliger, 18.2) · 7-138 (Harsh Thaker, 18.5)
Recorded target: 169 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/1 |
| 2 | 13 | 21/1 |
| 3 | 3 | 24/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 30/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 32/3 |
| 6 | 10 | 42/3 |
| 7 | 9 | 51/3 |
| 8 | 12 | 63/3 |
| 9 | 3 | 66/3 |
| 10 | 7 | 73/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 78/3 |
| 12 | 10 | 88/3 |
| 13 | 10 | 98/3 |
| 14 | 4 | 102/4 |
| 15 | 6 | 108/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 112/5 |
| 17 | 11 | 123/5 |
| 18 | 13 | 136/5 |
| 19 | 3 | 139/7 |
| 20 | 9 | 148/7 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
