West IndiesversusEngland

10 Nov 2024 · T20

Kensington Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 7 wickets

West Indies20.0 overs158/8 England14.5 overs161/3 Kensington Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

50%West Indies50%England

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than West Indies (1,664 vs 1,626 on our results rating)
West Indies are playing at home in Barbados

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 48%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 60% during the match (England: 40% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: S Mahmood to BA King, BA King out. England up from 50% to 61%.
2.3: JC Archer to E Lewis, E Lewis out. England up from 52% to 63%.
2nd inns 0.1: AJ Hosein to PD Salt, PD Salt out. West Indies up from 45% to 60%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies158/8 England161/3

Innings 2

England

161/314.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Philip Saltcaught · Brandon King · Akeal Hosein 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Brandon King · b Akeal Hosein	0	1	0	0	0.00
Will Jackscaught · Matthew Forde · Romario Shepherd 5 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Matthew Forde · b Romario Shepherd	38	29	5	1	131.03
Jos Buttlercaught · Rovman Powell · Romario Shepherd 8 fours · 6 sixes	caught · Rovman Powell · b Romario Shepherd	83	45	8	6	184.44
Liam Livingstonenot out 3 fours · 1 sixes	not out	23*	11

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0
Matthew Forde0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	17	0	8.50	1
Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.5	42	2	14.82	2
Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	16	0	8.00	0
Roston Chase0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	34	0	17.00	5
Terrance Hinds0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	24	0	12.00	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	9	11/1
3	7	18/1
4	8	26/1
5	9	35/1
6	21	56/1
7	4	60/1
8	6	66/1
9	12	78/1
10	16	94/1
11	15	109/1
12	18	127/1
13	5	132/3
14	13	145/3
15	16	161/3

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