AustraliaversusIndia

2 Nov 2025 · T20

Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 5 wickets

Australia20.0 overs186/6 India18.3 overs188/5 Bellerive Oval, Hobart ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

49%Australia51%India

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 7 and Australia won 3
Australia are playing at home in Australia
On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than India (1,806 vs 1,800 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 46%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 0% to 70% during the match (India: 30% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.3: NT Ellis to Shubman Gill, Shubman Gill out. Australia up from 42% to 55%.
2nd inns 7.3: MP Stoinis to SA Yadav, SA Yadav out. Australia up from 48% to 63%.
2nd inns 11.1: NT Ellis to AR Patel, AR Patel out. Australia up from 34% to 51%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia186/6 India188/5

Innings 2

India

188/518.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Abhishek Sharmacaught · Josh Inglis · Nathan Ellis 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Josh Inglis · b Nathan Ellis	25	16	2	2	156.25
Shubman Gilllbw · Nathan Ellis 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Nathan Ellis	15	12	1	0	125.00
Suryakumar Yadavcaught · Nathan Ellis · Marcus Stoinis 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Nathan Ellis · b Marcus Stoinis	24	11	1	2	218.18
Tilak Varmacaught · Josh Inglis · Xavier Bartlett 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Josh Inglis · b Xavier Bartlett	29

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Xavier Bartlett0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	1	1
Sean Abbott0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.3	56	0	16.00	0	1
Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	3	9.00	1	0
Matthew Kuhnemann0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	0	7.75	0	0
Marcus Stoinis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	22	1	11.00	0	0
Matthew Short0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	13	0	13.00	3	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	17	26/0
3	4	30/0
4	11	41/1
5	14	55/1
6	9	64/2
7	7	71/2
8	11	82/3
9	13	95/3
10	10	105/3
11	6	111/3
12	8	119/4
13	7	126/4
14	19	145/4
15	7	152/5
16	8	160/5
17	11	171/5
18	11	182/5
19	6	188/5

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