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Photo: Michal Klajban
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Pakistan tour of New Zealand · 2023/24 · Men
21 Jan 2024 · T20
Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 17%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 6% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 94%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Allencaught · Haseebullah Khan · Zaman Khan 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Haseebullah Khan · b Zaman Khan | 22 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 115.79 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Zaman Khan · Mohammad Nawaz0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zaman Khan · b Mohammad Nawaz | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Tim Seifertlbw · Iftikhar Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Iftikhar Ahmed | 19 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 63.33 |
 Will Youngcaught · Iftikhar Ahmed · Mohammad Nawaz2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Iftikhar Ahmed · b Mohammad Nawaz | 12 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 109.09 |
| run out · Iftikhar Ahmed, Zaman Khan |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| Glenn Phillipscaught · Abbas Afridi · Shaheen Afridi 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Abbas Afridi · b Shaheen Afridi | 26 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 118.18 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnercaught and bowled · Usama Mir 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Usama Mir | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Matt Henrycaught and bowled · Iftikhar Ahmed0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Iftikhar Ahmed | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Ish Sodhicaught · Fakhar Zaman · Iftikhar Ahmed0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Fakhar Zaman · b Iftikhar Ahmed | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Tim Southeenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Lockie Fergusonbowled · Shaheen Afridi0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.2 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaman Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Usama Mir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Abbas Afridi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Iftikhar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 3 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Rachin Ravindra, 1.4) · 2-30 (Finn Allen, 5.0) · 3-53 (Will Young, 9.3) · 4-54 (Mark Chapman, 10.1) · 5-64 (Tim Seifert, 12.5) · 6-69 (Mitchell Santner, 13.4) · 7-70 (Matt Henry, 14.1) · 8-72 (Ish Sodhi, 14.5) · 9-92 (Glenn Phillips, 17.1) · 10-92 (Lockie Ferguson, 17.2)
Recorded target: 135 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 13/1 |
| 3 | 11 | 24/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 26/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 30/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 35/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 40/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 45/2 |
| 9 | 7 | 52/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 54/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 58/4 |
| 12 | 3 | 61/4 |
| 13 | 3 | 64/5 |
| 14 | 6 | 70/6 |
| 15 | 4 | 74/8 |
| 16 | 5 | 79/8 |
| 17 | 13 | 92/8 |
| 18 | 0 | 92/10 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lockie Ferguson: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Ish Sodhi: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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