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Photo: Original uploader was ShattaAD at en.wikipedia
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Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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England tour of West Indies · 2024/25 · Men
2 Nov 2024 · ODI
Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 45%; West Indies batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philip Saltcaught · Gudakesh Motie · Matthew Forde8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gudakesh Motie · b Matthew Forde | 59 | 59 | 8 | 0 | 100.00 |
 Will Jackscaught · Evin Lewis · Matthew Forde1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Evin Lewis · b Matthew Forde | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 109.09 |
| Jordan Coxcaught · Shai Hope · Shamar Joseph 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Shamar Joseph | 4 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 21.05 |
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Jayden Seales · Roston Chase 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Jayden Seales · b Roston Chase | 55 | 57 | 4 | 2 | 96.49 |
West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 91% during the match (England: 9% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 124* |
| 85 |
| 5 |
| 9 |
| 145.88 |
 Sam Currancaught · Shimron Hetmyer · Matthew Forde3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shimron Hetmyer · b Matthew Forde | 52 | 52 | 3 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Dan Mousleynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 7 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Forde0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.3 | 0 | 48 | 3 | 5.65 | 1 | 0 |
| Jayden Seales0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 66 | 0 | 8.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Shamar Joseph0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 72 | 1 | 7.20 | 4 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 71 | 0 | 7.89 | 0 | 1 |
| Sherfane Rutherford0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 1 | 5.30 | 0 | 1 |
1-37 (Will Jacks, 4.5) · 2-63 (Jordan Cox, 11.2) · 3-107 (Philip Salt, 20.1) · 4-160 (Jacob Bethell, 28.0) · 5-300 (Sam Curran, 45.3)
Recorded target: 329 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 17/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 19/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 25/0 |
| 5 | 12 | 37/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 38/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 44/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 50/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 56/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 58/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 62/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 63/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 68/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 73/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 78/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 84/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 86/2 |
| 18 | 8 | 94/2 |
| 19 | 8 | 102/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 107/2 |
| 21 | 1 | 108/3 |
| 22 | 9 | 117/3 |
| 23 | 10 | 127/3 |
| 24 | 11 | 138/3 |
| 25 | 2 | 140/3 |
| 26 | 16 | 156/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 158/3 |
| 28 | 2 | 160/4 |
| 29 | 15 | 175/4 |
| 30 | 3 | 178/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 182/4 |
| 32 | 3 | 185/4 |
| 33 | 3 | 188/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 193/4 |
| 35 | 12 | 205/4 |
| 36 | 8 | 213/4 |
| 37 | 5 | 218/4 |
| 38 | 3 | 221/4 |
| 39 | 5 | 226/4 |
| 40 | 3 | 229/4 |
| 41 | 14 | 243/4 |
| 42 | 7 | 250/4 |
| 43 | 16 | 266/4 |
| 44 | 6 | 272/4 |
| 45 | 26 | 298/4 |
| 46 | 5 | 303/5 |
| 47 | 24 | 327/5 |
| 48 | 2 | 329/5 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shimron Hetmyer: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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