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Pakistan Women tour of South Africa · 2025/26 · Women
25 Feb 2026 · ODI
Centurion Park · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 82%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muneeba Alibowled · Annerie Dercksen 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Annerie Dercksen | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
| Sadaf Shamascaught · Chloe Tryon · Suné Luus 9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chloe Tryon · b Suné Luus | 61 | 62 | 9 | 0 | 98.39 |
| Sidra Ameencaught · Nondumiso Shangase · Annerie Dercksen 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nondumiso Shangase · b Annerie Dercksen | 9 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 52.94 |
| Ayesha Zafarbowled · Nondumiso Shangase 8 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nondumiso Shangase | 75 | 68 | 8 | 0 | 110.29 |
| Natalia Pervaizcaught and bowled · Annerie Dercksen 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Annerie Dercksen | 27 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 84.38 |
South Africa's chances ranged from 82% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 18%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Laura Wolvaardt · b Nondumiso Shangase |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Fatima Sanalbw · Nonkululeko Mlaba 6 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 52 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 144.44 |
|---|
| Syeda Aroob Shahcaught · Annerie Dercksen · Nadine de Klerk 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Annerie Dercksen · b Nadine de Klerk | 40 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 90.91 |
|---|
| Diana Baignot out 5 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 38* | 25 | 5 | 1 | 152.00 |
|---|
| Nashra Sandhulbw · Nadine de Klerk 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nadine de Klerk | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Sadia Iqballbw · Nonkululeko Mlaba 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 24 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayanda Hlubi0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 6.78 | 4 | 0 |
| Annerie Dercksen0 maidens · 15 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 59 | 3 | 6.56 | 15 | 0 |
| Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 66 | 2 | 7.33 | 3 | 0 |
 Nonkululeko Mlaba1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 1 | 68 | 2 | 6.92 | 1 | 0 |
| Suné Luus0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 6.80 | 1 | 0 |
 Chloe Tryon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Nondumiso Shangase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-13 (Muneeba Ali, 1.3) · 2-24 (Sidra Ameen, 5.2) · 3-121 (Sadaf Shamas, 19.5) · 4-197 (Ayesha Zafar, 29.5) · 5-197 (Aliya Riaz, 30.0) · 6-199 (Natalia Pervaiz, 31.0) · 7-280 (Fatima Sana, 41.5) · 8-314 (Syeda Aroob Shah, 46.2) · 9-314 (Nashra Sandhu, 46.4) · 10-345 (Sadia Iqbal, 49.5)
Recorded target: 362 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 14/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 21/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 23/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 27/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 28/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 33/2 |
| 9 | 10 | 43/2 |
| 10 | 11 | 54/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 58/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 64/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 67/2 |
| 14 | 6 | 73/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 80/2 |
| 16 | 10 | 90/2 |
| 17 | 10 | 100/2 |
| 18 | 12 | 112/2 |
| 19 | 7 | 119/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 121/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 124/3 |
| 22 | 5 | 129/3 |
| 23 | 11 | 140/3 |
| 24 | 6 | 146/3 |
| 25 | 7 | 153/3 |
| 26 | 9 | 162/3 |
| 27 | 10 | 172/3 |
| 28 | 7 | 179/3 |
| 29 | 13 | 192/3 |
| 30 | 5 | 197/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 199/6 |
| 32 | 6 | 205/6 |
| 33 | 12 | 217/6 |
| 34 | 3 | 220/6 |
| 35 | 13 | 233/6 |
| 36 | 9 | 242/6 |
| 37 | 2 | 244/6 |
| 38 | 0 | 244/6 |
| 39 | 7 | 251/6 |
| 40 | 11 | 262/6 |
| 41 | 10 | 272/6 |
| 42 | 8 | 280/7 |
| 43 | 5 | 285/7 |
| 44 | 8 | 293/7 |
| 45 | 12 | 305/7 |
| 46 | 8 | 313/7 |
| 47 | 3 | 316/9 |
| 48 | 12 | 328/9 |
| 49 | 11 | 339/9 |
| 50 | 6 | 345/10 |
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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