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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
7 Feb 2026 · T20
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 87%; India batted first.
India's chances ranged from 33% to 100% during the match (United States of America: 0% to 67%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ishan Kishancaught · Milind Kumar · Shadley van Schalkwyk1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Milind Kumar · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 20 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 125.00 |
| Abhishek Sharmacaught · Sanjay Krishnamurthi · Ali Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sanjay Krishnamurthi · b Ali Khan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Tilak Varmacaught · Monank Patel · Shadley van Schalkwyk3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Monank Patel · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 25 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 156.25 |
 Suryakumar Yadavnot out10 fours · 4 sixes | not out |
| 49 |
| 10 |
| 4 |
| 171.43 |
 Shivam Dubecaught · Saurabh Netravalkar · Shadley van Schalkwyk0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saurabh Netravalkar · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Rinku Singhcaught · Milind Kumar · Mohammad Mohsin 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Milind Kumar · b Mohammad Mohsin | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
 Hardik Pandyacaught · Saiteja Mukkamalla · Harmeet Singh1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saiteja Mukkamalla · b Harmeet Singh | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
 Axar Patelcaught · Mohammad Mohsin · Harmeet Singh2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Mohsin · b Harmeet Singh | 14 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 127.27 |
|---|
 Arshdeep Singhcaught · Milind Kumar · Shadley van Schalkwyk1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Milind Kumar · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Varun Chakravarthyrun out · Mohammad Mohsin, Andries Gous · Saurabh Netravalkar 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Mohammad Mohsin, Andries Gous | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saurabh Netravalkar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 65 | 0 | 16.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Ali Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Shadley van Schalkwyk0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 4 | 6.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Mohammad Mohsin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Shubham Ranjane0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Harmeet Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-8 (Abhishek Sharma, 1.2) · 2-45 (Ishan Kishan, 5.2) · 3-46 (Tilak Varma, 5.5) · 4-46 (Shivam Dube, 6.0) · 5-72 (Rinku Singh, 11.4) · 6-77 (Hardik Pandya, 12.4) · 7-118 (Axar Patel, 16.4) · 8-140 (Arshdeep Singh, 19.0) · 9-161 (Varun Chakravarthy, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 16 | 25/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 33/1 |
| 5 | 11 | 44/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 46/4 |
| 7 | 3 | 49/4 |
| 8 | 3 | 52/4 |
| 9 | 1 | 53/4 |
| 10 | 10 | 63/4 |
| 11 | 7 | 70/4 |
| 12 | 3 | 73/5 |
| 13 | 4 | 77/6 |
| 14 | 9 | 86/6 |
| 15 | 8 | 94/6 |
| 16 | 21 | 115/6 |
| 17 | 7 | 122/7 |
| 18 | 6 | 128/7 |
| 19 | 12 | 140/8 |
| 20 | 21 | 161/9 |
Ali Khan: U.S. Embassy Port of Spain · Public domain
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Suryakumar Yadav: Kolkata Knight Riders - Official · CC BY 3.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shivam Dube: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ishan Kishan: Tata Ipl 2022 · CC BY 3.0
Tilak Varma: Buchi Babu Sana · CC BY 4.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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