BangladeshversusUnited States of America

18 Jan 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 22 runs

Bangladesh20.0 overs159/5 United States of America20.0 overs137/9 Mulpani Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

53%Bangladesh47%United States of America

Why

In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 2 and United States of America won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, United States of America rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,449 vs 1,412 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 50%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · United States of America is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 50% to 100% during the match (United States of America: 0% to 50%).

Biggest swings

2.6: Maahi Madhavan to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. United States of America up from 33% to 40%.
9.1: IM Vaghela to Nigar Sultana, Nigar Sultana out. United States of America up from 32% to 37%.
2nd inns 6.5: Rabeya Khan to D Dhingra, D Dhingra out. Bangladesh up from 79% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh159/5 United States of America137/9

Innings 1

Bangladesh

159/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilara Aktercaught · Ella Claridge · Maahi Madhavan 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ella Claridge · b Maahi Madhavan	17	8	4	0	212.50
Juairiya Ferdouscaught · CR Pagydyala · Isani Vaghela 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · CR Pagydyala · b Isani Vaghela	17	23	2	0	73.91
Sharmin Akhtercaught · Pooja Ganesh · Maahi Madhavan 8 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Pooja Ganesh · b Maahi Madhavan	63	39	8	1	161.54
Nigar Sultanacaught · Ella Claridge · Isani Vaghela 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ella Claridge · b Isani Vaghela	2	5	0	0	40.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
AI Chudasama0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	35	0	11.67	1
Geetika Kodali0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	24	0	12.00	1
Maahi Madhavan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	3	5.75	1
Isani Vaghela0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	2	6.75	3
S Immadi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	0	4.25	0
T Chopra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	0	7.50	0
Ritu Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	18	0	18.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	14	20/0
3	6	26/1
4	13	39/1
5	4	43/1
6	11	54/1
7	5	59/1
8	3	62/2
9	4	66/2
10	2	68/3
11	4	72/3
12	6	78/3
13	4	82/3
14	9	91/3
15	18	109/3
16	18	127/3
17	9	136/4
18	10	146/4
19	4	150/5
20	9	159/5

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