Hobart HurricanesversusMelbourne Stars

18 Dec 2025 · T20

Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Stars won by 8 wickets

Hobart Hurricanes20.0 overs158/9 Melbourne Stars16.0 overs159/2 Melbourne Cricket Ground ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hobart Hurricanes started on 52%; Hobart Hurricanes batted first.

Hobart Hurricanes’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Stars is the rest

Hobart Hurricanes's chances ranged from 0% to 61% during the match (Melbourne Stars: 40% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.4: GJ Maxwell to MJ Owen, MJ Owen out. Melbourne Stars up from 39% to 53%.
1.1: TK Curran to Rehan Ahmed, Rehan Ahmed out. Melbourne Stars up from 52% to 65%.
2nd inns 7.3: Rishad Hossain to JM Clarke, JM Clarke out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 28% to 39%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hobart Hurricanes158/9 Melbourne Stars159/2

Innings 1