OmanversusBahrain

17 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Oman won by 2 runs

Oman20.0 overs130/8 Bahrain20.0 overs128/8 ICC Academy, Dubai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bahrain more likely to win

44%Oman56%Bahrain

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bahrain rate stronger than Oman (1,539 vs 1,476 on our results rating)
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Oman won 3 and Bahrain won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Oman started on 42%; Oman batted first.

Oman’s chance of winning (%) · Bahrain is the rest

Oman's chances ranged from 7% to 91% during the match (Bahrain: 9% to 93%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.1: S Shrivastava to Haider Butt, Haider Butt out. Oman up from 32% to 56%.
2nd inns 19.4: Shakeel Ahmed to Rizwan Butt, six by Rizwan Butt. Bahrain up from 9% to 41%.
2nd inns 19.6: Shakeel Ahmed to Imran Khan, 2 runs to Imran Khan. Oman up from 77% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Oman130/8 Bahrain128/8

Innings 1

Oman

130/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Oman batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Aamir Kaleemcaught · P Kurup · Rizwan Butt 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · P Kurup · b Rizwan Butt	2	2	0	0	100.00
Jatinder Singhcaught · Ahmer Bin Nasir · Imran Anwar 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ahmer Bin Nasir · b Imran Anwar	6	6	1	0	100.00
Mohammad Nadeembowled · Imran Khan (5) 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Imran Khan (5)	47	49	4	0	95.92
Hammad Mirzacaught · P Kurup · Imran Anwar 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · P Kurup · b Imran Anwar	9	10	0	0	90.00
Wasim Alicaught · Junaid Aziz · Imran Khan (5) 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Junaid Aziz · b Imran Khan (5)	10	8	1	0	125.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Rizwan Butt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	2	5.75	0
Imran Anwar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	2	7.25	1
Imran Khan (5)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	2	4.75	0
Abdul Majeed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	0
Sarfaraz Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	26	1	8.67	0
S Sarthak0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	7	0	7.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	6	10/2
3	5	15/2
4	11	26/2
5	5	31/2
6	6	37/3
7	7	44/3
8	6	50/3
9	4	54/4
10	7	61/4
11	8	69/4
12	4	73/4
13	11	84/4
14	7	91/4
15	11	102/4
16	3	105/5
17	11	116/5
18	4	120/6
19	3	123/7
20	7	130/8

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