MI EmiratesversusDesert Vipers

16 Jan 2025 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Desert Vipers won by 5 wickets

MI Emirates20.0 overs159/6 Desert Vipers19.1 overs161/5 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

MI Emirates started on 48%; MI Emirates batted first.

MI Emirates’s chance of winning (%) · Desert Vipers is the rest

MI Emirates's chances ranged from 4% to 68% during the match (Desert Vipers: 32% to 96%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.3: DR Mousley to DW Lawrence, DW Lawrence out. MI Emirates up from 27% to 39%.
2nd inns 10.1: DR Mousley to Azam Khan, Azam Khan out. MI Emirates up from 48% to 61%.
2nd inns 14.5: DR Mousley to SM Curran, six by SM Curran. Desert Vipers up from 65% to 77%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: MI Emirates chose to bat
Player of the match: Fakhar Zaman
match referees: RS Mahanama
reserve umpires: RSA Palliyaguruge
tv umpires: LS Reifer
umpires: AG Wharf, Shiju Sam

Match history & source

On 16 Jan 2025, MI Emirates played Desert Vipers at Dubai International Cricket Stadium. Recorded result: Desert Vipers won by 5 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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