CanadaversusBahamas

12 Jun 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Canada won by 107 runs

Canada19.5 overs219/10 Bahamas20.0 overs112/7 Maple Leaf North-East Ground, King City ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Canada more likely to win

83%Canada17%Bahamas

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Canada rate stronger than Bahamas (1,534 vs 1,347 on our results rating)
Canada are playing at home in Canada
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Canada won 1 and Bahamas won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Canada started on 82%; Canada batted first.

Canada’s chance of winning (%) · Bahamas is the rest

Canada's chances ranged from 82% to 100% during the match (Bahamas: 0% to 18%).

Biggest swings

0.3: DG Weakley to YS Samra, four by YS Samra. Canada up from 82% to 84%.
0.4: DG Weakley to YS Samra, six by YS Samra. Canada up from 84% to 87%.
0.6: DG Weakley to YS Samra, six by YS Samra. Canada up from 88% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Canada219/10 Bahamas112/7

Innings 1

Canada

219/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Canada batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
YS Samrabowled · Marc Taylor 2 fours · 3 sixes	bowled · b Marc Taylor	34	17	2	3	200.00
Aaron Johnsoncaught · Antonio Harris · Marc Taylor 1 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Antonio Harris · b Marc Taylor	34	19	1	4	178.95
Dilpreet Bajwacaught · Antonio Harris · DG Weakley 3 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Antonio Harris · b DG Weakley	50	33	3	2	151.52
Nicholas Kirtoncaught · Marc Taylor · K Burrows 3 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Marc Taylor · b K Burrows	42	18	3	4	233.33
Ravinderpal Singhbowled · K Burrows 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b K Burrows	3	7	0	0	42.86

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
DG Weakley0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	51	2	12.75	1
Jonathan Barry0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	56	1	14.61	3
Marc Taylor0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	2	7.50	0
Gregory Taylor0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	0	8.25	0
K Burrows0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	22	3	11.00	0
Sandeep Goud (2)0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	1	11.50	4

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	19	19/0
2	10	29/0
3	12	41/0
4	22	63/0
5	6	69/1
6	9	78/1
7	1	79/2
8	10	89/2
9	8	97/2
10	9	106/2
11	15	121/2
12	14	135/3
13	11	146/3
14	8	154/5
15	12	166/6
16	9	175/6
17	9	184/7
18	10	194/7
19	11	205/8
20	14	219/10

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