Papua New GuineaversusNew Zealand

17 Jun 2024 · T20

Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 7 wickets

Papua New Guinea19.4 overs78/10 New Zealand12.2 overs79/3 Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

44%Papua New Guinea56%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than Papua New Guinea (1,581 vs 1,537 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Papua New Guinea started on 41%; Papua New Guinea batted first.

Papua New Guinea’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 0% to 42% during the match (New Zealand: 58% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: TG Southee to TP Ura, TP Ura out. New Zealand up from 62% to 71%.
1.5: TG Southee to CJA Amini, four by CJA Amini. Papua New Guinea up from 29% to 32%.
4.1: LH Ferguson to A Vala, A Vala out. New Zealand up from 71% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Papua New Guinea78/10 New Zealand79/3

Innings 1

Papua New Guinea

78/1019.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Papua New Guinea batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tony Uracaught · Glenn Phillips · Tim Southee 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Glenn Phillips · b Tim Southee	1	2	0	0	50.00
Assad Valacaught · Daryl Mitchell · Lockie Ferguson 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Lockie Ferguson	6	16	1	0	37.50
CJA Aminilbw · Lockie Ferguson 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Lockie Ferguson	17	25	2	0	68.00
Sese Baucaught · Finn Allen · Mitchell Santner 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Finn Allen · b Mitchell Santner	12	27	1	0	44.44
Hiri Hiribowled · Trent Boult 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Trent Boult

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Trent Boult0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	2	3.50	0
Tim Southee0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	11	2	2.75	2
Lockie Ferguson4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	4	0	3	0.00	0
Ish Sodhi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	0	29	2	7.91	1
Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	17	1	4.25	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	5	7/1
3	5	12/1
4	2	14/1
5	0	14/2
6	2	16/2
7	0	16/2
8	9	25/2
9	2	27/2
10	8	35/2
11	6	41/2
12	0	41/3
13	2	43/4
14	2	45/5
15	7	52/5
16	7	59/6
17	4	63/7
18	11	74/7
19	2	76/8
20	2	78/10

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