Adelaide StrikersversusSydney Thunder

17 Dec 2024 · T20

Manuka Oval, Canberra · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sydney Thunder won by 2 wickets

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs182/8 Sydney Thunder19.4 overs183/8 Manuka Oval, Canberra ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 51%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Thunder is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 5% to 97% during the match (Sydney Thunder: 4% to 95%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.5: FA Allen to S Konstas, S Konstas out. Adelaide Strikers up from 54% to 69%.
2nd inns 18.4: L Pope to DR Sams, six by DR Sams. Sydney Thunder up from 32% to 65%.
2nd inns 18.5: L Pope to DR Sams, four by DR Sams. Sydney Thunder up from 65% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers182/8 Sydney Thunder183/8

Innings 1