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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026/27 · Men
11 Oct 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 65%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arjun Kumalcaught · Aaron Johnson · Sukhjinder Singh 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aaron Johnson · b Sukhjinder Singh | 23 | 54 | 4 | 0 | 42.59 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · Aaron Johnson · Akhil Kumar 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aaron Johnson · b Akhil Kumar | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
| Ishan Pandeycaught · Hamza Tariq · Zahid Shirzad 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hamza Tariq · b Zahid Shirzad | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Rohit Kumarcaught · Shreyas Movva · Zahid Shirzad8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Zahid Shirzad | 101 | 127 | 8 | 1 | 79.53 |
| Basir Ahamadcaught and bowled · Sukhjinder Singh 3 fours · 0 sixes |
Nepal's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Canada: 0% to 56%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught and bowled · b Sukhjinder Singh |
| 30 |
| 57 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 52.63 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireebowled · Sukhjinder Singh1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sukhjinder Singh | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
 Gulsan Jhacaught · Samit Gohel · Akhil Kumar4 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Samit Gohel · b Akhil Kumar | 48 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 141.18 |
|---|
 Karan KCcaught · Sukhjinder Singh · Akhil Kumar0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sukhjinder Singh · b Akhil Kumar | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Nandan Yadavrun out · Aaditya Varadarajan, Hamza Tariq · Akhil Kumar 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Aaditya Varadarajan, Hamza Tariq | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Sandeep Lamichhanenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Lalit Rajbanshicaught · Shreyas Movva · Akhil Kumar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Akhil Kumar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zahid Shirzad0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 2 | 4.20 | 3 | 0 |
| Akhil Kumar1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 68 | 4 | 6.80 | 5 | 0 |
| Sukhjinder Singh1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 4.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Sheel Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 4.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (Aasif Sheikh, 1.3) · 2-10 (Ishan Pandey, 3.0) · 3-56 (Arjun Kumal, 17.0) · 4-133 (Basir Ahamad, 35.5) · 5-141 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 37.5) · 6-223 (Gulsan Jha, 47.5) · 7-227 (Rohit Kumar, 48.3) · 8-231 (Karan KC, 49.2) · 9-232 (Nandan Yadav, 49.3) · 10-235 (Lalit Rajbanshi, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 5/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 10/2 |
| 4 | 0 | 10/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 14/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 15/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 19/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 24/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 28/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 34/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 38/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 40/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 40/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 44/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 46/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 47/2 |
| 17 | 9 | 56/3 |
| 18 | 1 | 57/3 |
| 19 | 5 | 62/3 |
| 20 | 2 | 64/3 |
| 21 | 0 | 64/3 |
| 22 | 5 | 69/3 |
| 23 | 1 | 70/3 |
| 24 | 7 | 77/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 81/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 84/3 |
| 27 | 3 | 87/3 |
| 28 | 5 | 92/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 95/3 |
| 30 | 3 | 98/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 101/3 |
| 32 | 8 | 109/3 |
| 33 | 7 | 116/3 |
| 34 | 12 | 128/3 |
| 35 | 3 | 131/3 |
| 36 | 2 | 133/4 |
| 37 | 4 | 137/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 141/5 |
| 39 | 4 | 145/5 |
| 40 | 3 | 148/5 |
| 41 | 5 | 153/5 |
| 42 | 4 | 157/5 |
| 43 | 9 | 166/5 |
| 44 | 15 | 181/5 |
| 45 | 10 | 191/5 |
| 46 | 12 | 203/5 |
| 47 | 6 | 209/5 |
| 48 | 16 | 225/6 |
| 49 | 5 | 230/7 |
| 50 | 5 | 235/10 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
