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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026/27 · Men
11 Oct 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 65%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YS Samralbw · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Karan KC | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8.33 |
| Aaron Johnsoncaught · Gulsan Jha · Sandeep Lamichhane 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gulsan Jha · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 44 | 49 | 6 | 0 | 89.80 |
| Samit Gohelrun out · Aasif Sheikh, Dipendra Singh Airee · Lalit Rajbanshi 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Aasif Sheikh, Dipendra Singh Airee | 35 | 59 | 2 | 0 | 59.32 |
| Aaditya Varadarajancaught · Arjun Kumal · Sandeep Lamichhane 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Arjun Kumal · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Harsh Thakerbowled · Lalit Rajbanshi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 15 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 39.47 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Canada: 0% to 56%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Lalit Rajbanshi |
| 26 |
| 34 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 76.47 |
| Hamza Tariqcaught · Basir Ahamad · Karan KC 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Basir Ahamad · b Karan KC | 26 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 89.66 |
|---|
| Akhil Kumarnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 30* | 40 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Sheel Patelrun out · Aasif Sheikh, Gulsan Jha · Dipendra Singh Airee 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Aasif Sheikh, Gulsan Jha | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 61.54 |
|---|
| Zahid Shirzadbowled · Nandan Yadav 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nandan Yadav | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Sukhjinder Singhcaught and bowled · Nandan Yadav 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Nandan Yadav | 8 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 72.73 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nandan Yadav0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 4.73 | 2 | 0 |
 Karan KC0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 4.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Lalit Rajbanshi1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 36 | 2 | 3.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 33 | 2 | 3.30 | 1 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Basir Ahamad0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-10 (YS Samra, 3.3) · 2-73 (Aaron Johnson, 16.1) · 3-73 (Aaditya Varadarajan, 16.2) · 4-94 (Samit Gohel, 22.5) · 5-124 (Harsh Thaker, 30.3) · 6-145 (Shreyas Movva, 34.3) · 7-166 (Hamza Tariq, 39.1) · 8-187 (Sheel Patel, 43.3) · 9-194 (Zahid Shirzad, 45.0) · 10-211 (Sukhjinder Singh, 48.4)
Recorded target: 236 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 13/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 16/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 20/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 23/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 27/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 28/1 |
| 10 | 9 | 37/1 |
| 11 | 13 | 50/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 56/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 62/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 64/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 70/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 73/1 |
| 17 | 0 | 73/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 75/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 77/3 |
| 20 | 7 | 84/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 87/3 |
| 22 | 3 | 90/3 |
| 23 | 4 | 94/4 |
| 24 | 2 | 96/4 |
| 25 | 2 | 98/4 |
| 26 | 2 | 100/4 |
| 27 | 6 | 106/4 |
| 28 | 6 | 112/4 |
| 29 | 5 | 117/4 |
| 30 | 6 | 123/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 125/5 |
| 32 | 7 | 132/5 |
| 33 | 5 | 137/5 |
| 34 | 8 | 145/5 |
| 35 | 0 | 145/6 |
| 36 | 6 | 151/6 |
| 37 | 6 | 157/6 |
| 38 | 4 | 161/6 |
| 39 | 5 | 166/6 |
| 40 | 4 | 170/7 |
| 41 | 4 | 174/7 |
| 42 | 3 | 177/7 |
| 43 | 7 | 184/7 |
| 44 | 4 | 188/8 |
| 45 | 6 | 194/9 |
| 46 | 3 | 197/9 |
| 47 | 1 | 198/9 |
| 48 | 10 | 208/9 |
| 49 | 3 | 211/10 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
