EswatiniversusMozambique

12 Sept 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Eswatini won by 5 runs

Eswatini19.2 overs165/10 Mozambique20.0 overs160/7 Malkerns Country Club Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Mozambique more likely to win

35%Eswatini65%Mozambique

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Mozambique rate stronger than Eswatini (1,442 vs 1,340 on our results rating)
Eswatini are playing at home in Eswatini
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Mozambique won 1 and Eswatini won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Eswatini started on 34%; Eswatini batted first.

Eswatini’s chance of winning (%) · Mozambique is the rest

Eswatini's chances ranged from 4% to 90% during the match (Mozambique: 10% to 96%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 19.4: M Jele to AA Navicha, six by AA Navicha. Mozambique up from 10% to 37%.
2nd inns 19.5: M Jele to AA Navicha, AA Navicha out. Eswatini up from 63% to 81%.
2nd inns 19.6: M Jele to MA Algi, 0 runs to MA Algi. Eswatini up from 81% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Eswatini165/10 Mozambique160/7

Innings 2

Mozambique

160/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Mozambique batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Joao Houcaught · Umair Qasim · Adil Butt (2) 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Umair Qasim · b Adil Butt (2)	3	4	0	0	75.00
LI Salomonerun out · H Jangariya, Umair Qasim · H Rashid 12 fours · 2 sixes	run out · H Jangariya, Umair Qasim	79	49	12	2	161.22
JM Joaorun out · H Jangariya, S Kubheka · Adil Butt (2) 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · H Jangariya, S Kubheka	16	16	1	0	100.00
VE Tembocaught · M Magagula · Umair Qasim 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · M Magagula · b Umair Qasim	0	2	0	0	0.00
CB Roposorun out · M Khojbariya, H Jangariya · Umair Qasim 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · M Khojbariya, H Jangariya	8	11	1	0	72.73

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Umair Qasim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0
Adil Butt (2)0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	1	10.25	3
M Jele0 maidens · 10 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	31	1	10.33	10
M Khojbariya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	0	8.75	0
M Magagula0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	14	0	14.00	1
H Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	1	3.75	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	13	13/0
2	13	26/1
3	6	32/1
4	17	49/1
5	14	63/1
6	7	70/1
7	14	84/1
8	12	96/1
9	3	99/2
10	2	101/3
11	6	107/3
12	3	110/4
13	2	112/4
14	3	115/4
15	4	119/4
16	13	132/4
17	3	135/6
18	8	143/6
19	8	151/6
20	9	160/7

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