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Photo: No machine-readable author provided. FrWaters assumed (based on copyright claims).
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.5
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New Zealand tour of West Indies · 2026 · Men
13 Jul 2026 · ODI
Providence Stadium, Guyana · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 28%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 53% during the match (New Zealand: 48% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Nichollscaught · Amir Jangoo · Gudakesh Motie 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amir Jangoo · b Gudakesh Motie | 17 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 58.62 |
 Will Younglbw · Alzarri Joseph5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Alzarri Joseph | 28 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 90.32 |
| Mark Chapmanrun out · Shai Hope, Vitel Lawes · Gudakesh Motie 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Shai Hope, Vitel Lawes | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Daryl Mitchellstumped · Shai Hope · Khary Pierre 3 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Shai Hope · b Khary Pierre | 28 | 43 | 3 | 0 | 65.12 |
 |
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 37* |
| 61 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 60.66 |
| Dean Foxcroftbowled · Khary Pierre 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Khary Pierre | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Michael Bracewellnot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 24* | 26 | 3 | 0 | 92.31 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khary Pierre1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 33 | 2 | 3.67 | 3 | 0 |
| Matthew Forde0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.4 | 2 | 32 | 1 | 3.31 | 0 | 0 |
| Vitel Lawes0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 5.71 | 4 | 0 |
1-35 (Will Young, 7.4) · 2-35 (Mark Chapman, 8.1) · 3-52 (Henry Nicholls, 12.2) · 4-94 (Daryl Mitchell, 21.0) · 5-96 (Dean Foxcroft, 22.3)
Recorded target: 139 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 13/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 17/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 23/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 31/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 35/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 35/2 |
| 10 | 8 | 43/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 45/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 52/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 56/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 61/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 62/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 66/3 |
| 17 | 5 | 71/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 75/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 77/3 |
| 20 | 14 | 91/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 94/4 |
| 22 | 1 | 95/4 |
| 23 | 1 | 96/5 |
| 24 | 5 | 101/5 |
| 25 | 0 | 101/5 |
| 26 | 2 | 103/5 |
| 27 | 5 | 108/5 |
| 28 | 0 | 108/5 |
| 29 | 7 | 115/5 |
| 30 | 11 | 126/5 |
| 31 | 4 | 130/5 |
| 32 | 6 | 136/5 |
| 33 | 5 | 141/5 |
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matthew Fisher: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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