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Photo: Krish Dulal
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
22 May 2026 · ODI
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 50%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtelcaught · Saiteja Mukkamalla · Shubham Ranjane5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saiteja Mukkamalla · b Shubham Ranjane | 29 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 74.36 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · Smit Patel · R Ugarkar 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Smit Patel · b R Ugarkar | 43 | 57 | 6 | 0 | 75.44 |
| Ishan Pandeycaught · Shehan Jayasuriya · Shubham Ranjane 8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shehan Jayasuriya · b Shubham Ranjane | 84 | 83 | 8 | 1 | 101.20 |
 Rohit Kumarlbw · Milind Kumar2 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Milind Kumar | 46 | 59 | 2 | 1 | 77.97 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 49% to 100% during the match (United States of America: 0% to 51%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| run out · R Ugarkar |
| 59 |
| 36 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 163.89 |
 Gulsan Jhacaught · Nosthush Kenjige · Shubham Ranjane0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Nosthush Kenjige · b Shubham Ranjane | 15 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 125.00 |
|---|
 Aarif Sheikhnot out0 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 18* | 10 | 0 | 2 | 180.00 |
|---|
 Sompal Kamirun out · Smit Patel, Nosthush Kenjige · Shubham Ranjane1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Smit Patel, Nosthush Kenjige | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Nandan Yadavrun out · Smit Patel, Harmeet Singh · Shubham Ranjane 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Smit Patel, Harmeet Singh | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 14 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saurabh Netravalkar1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 70 | 0 | 7.78 | 1 | 0 |
| R Ugarkar0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 81 | 1 | 9.00 | 8 | 0 |
| Nosthush Kenjige0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 2.71 | 0 | 0 |
 Shubham Ranjane0 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 61 | 3 | 6.10 | 5 | 1 |
| Milind Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 4.88 | 0 | 0 |
| Harmeet Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 6.43 | 0 | 0 |
1-69 (Kushal Bhurtel, 12.5) · 2-84 (Aasif Sheikh, 18.3) · 3-194 (Rohit Kumar, 38.0) · 4-215 (Ishan Pandey, 40.4) · 5-262 (Gulsan Jha, 45.3) · 6-300 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 48.3) · 7-315 (Sompal Kami, 49.3) · 8-317 (Nandan Yadav, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 19/0 |
| 4 | 17 | 36/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 37/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 38/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 46/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 48/0 |
| 9 | 13 | 61/0 |
| 10 | 1 | 62/0 |
| 11 | 3 | 65/0 |
| 12 | 2 | 67/0 |
| 13 | 2 | 69/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 70/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 72/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 76/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 79/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 83/1 |
| 19 | 1 | 84/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 87/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 89/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 91/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 96/2 |
| 24 | 7 | 103/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 108/2 |
| 26 | 4 | 112/2 |
| 27 | 10 | 122/2 |
| 28 | 2 | 124/2 |
| 29 | 4 | 128/2 |
| 30 | 2 | 130/2 |
| 31 | 8 | 138/2 |
| 32 | 11 | 149/2 |
| 33 | 9 | 158/2 |
| 34 | 6 | 164/2 |
| 35 | 6 | 170/2 |
| 36 | 5 | 175/2 |
| 37 | 15 | 190/2 |
| 38 | 4 | 194/3 |
| 39 | 6 | 200/3 |
| 40 | 12 | 212/3 |
| 41 | 5 | 217/4 |
| 42 | 8 | 225/4 |
| 43 | 4 | 229/4 |
| 44 | 11 | 240/4 |
| 45 | 16 | 256/4 |
| 46 | 8 | 264/5 |
| 47 | 19 | 283/5 |
| 48 | 10 | 293/5 |
| 49 | 15 | 308/6 |
| 50 | 9 | 317/8 |
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
