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Photo: Krish Dulal
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
22 May 2026 · ODI
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 50%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smit Patelcaught · Aasif Sheikh · Sompal Kami 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Sompal Kami | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Shayan Jahangircaught · Aasif Sheikh · Sandeep Lamichhane 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 27 | 34 | 1 | 2 | 79.41 |
| Shehan Jayasuriyabowled · Dipendra Singh Airee 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 26 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 96.30 |
| Saiteja Mukkamallabowled · Sandeep Lamichhane 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 22 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 61.11 |
| Milind Kumarlbw · Sandeep Lamichhane 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 12 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 63.16 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 49% to 100% during the match (United States of America: 0% to 51%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Shubham Ranjanelbw · Lalit Rajbanshi0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Sanjay Krishnamurthibowled · Gulsan Jha 4 fours · 4 sixes | bowled · b Gulsan Jha | 56 | 44 | 4 | 4 | 127.27 |
|---|
| Harmeet Singhcaught · Rohit Kumar · Lalit Rajbanshi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rohit Kumar · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nosthush Kenjigecaught · Kushal Bhurtel · Dipendra Singh Airee 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kushal Bhurtel · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 29 | 50 | 4 | 0 | 58.00 |
|---|
| Saurabh Netravalkarcaught · Aasif Sheikh · Gulsan Jha 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Gulsan Jha | 10 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 52.63 |
|---|
| R Ugarkarnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sompal Kami0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 4.71 | 1 | 0 |
| Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 3.80 | 1 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.2 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Nandan Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 1 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 30 | 3 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
 Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Smit Patel, 0.4) · 2-53 (Shayan Jahangir, 10.3) · 3-55 (Shehan Jayasuriya, 11.1) · 4-84 (Milind Kumar, 17.5) · 5-92 (Shubham Ranjane, 20.4) · 6-94 (Saiteja Mukkamalla, 21.5) · 7-95 (Harmeet Singh, 22.3) · 8-165 (Sanjay Krishnamurthi, 34.4) · 9-181 (Saurabh Netravalkar, 38.5) · 10-195 (Nosthush Kenjige, 41.2)
Recorded target: 318 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 16/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 20/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 25/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 32/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 37/1 |
| 9 | 10 | 47/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 53/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 55/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 58/3 |
| 13 | 7 | 65/3 |
| 14 | 2 | 67/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 71/3 |
| 16 | 2 | 73/3 |
| 17 | 8 | 81/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 84/4 |
| 19 | 3 | 87/4 |
| 20 | 4 | 91/4 |
| 21 | 1 | 92/5 |
| 22 | 2 | 94/6 |
| 23 | 1 | 95/7 |
| 24 | 2 | 97/7 |
| 25 | 7 | 104/7 |
| 26 | 5 | 109/7 |
| 27 | 2 | 111/7 |
| 28 | 13 | 124/7 |
| 29 | 7 | 131/7 |
| 30 | 7 | 138/7 |
| 31 | 9 | 147/7 |
| 32 | 7 | 154/7 |
| 33 | 2 | 156/7 |
| 34 | 2 | 158/7 |
| 35 | 12 | 170/8 |
| 36 | 4 | 174/8 |
| 37 | 2 | 176/8 |
| 38 | 0 | 176/8 |
| 39 | 6 | 182/9 |
| 40 | 5 | 187/9 |
| 41 | 4 | 191/9 |
| 42 | 4 | 195/10 |
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
