IndiaversusEngland

28 May 2026 · T20

The County Ground, Chelmsford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 38 runs

India20.0 overs188/7 England20.0 overs150/8 The County Ground, Chelmsford ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

33%India67%England

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than India (1,677 vs 1,621 on our results rating)
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 6 and India won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 30%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

India's chances ranged from 18% to 100% during the match (England: 0% to 82%).

Biggest swings

0.1: LK Bell to S Mandhana, S Mandhana out. England up from 69% to 80%.
2nd inns 1.5: K Goud to SIR Dunkley, SIR Dunkley out. India up from 63% to 72%.
2nd inns 3.6: K Goud to A Capsey, A Capsey out. India up from 67% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India188/7 England150/8

Innings 2

England

150/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sophia Dunkleycaught · Shafali Verma · Kranti Goud 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Shafali Verma · b Kranti Goud	16	10	2	1	160.00
Alice Capseycaught · Richa Ghosh · Kranti Goud 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Richa Ghosh · b Kranti Goud	6	5	1	0	120.00
Amy Jonescaught · Shafali Verma · Nandani Sharma 9 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shafali Verma · b Nandani Sharma	67	48	9	0	139.58
Heather Knight

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Arundhati Reddy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	0	5.75	1
Kranti Goud0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	2	6.00	0
Nandani Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	3	8.50	0
Shree Charani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	0
Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	42	1	10.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	11	11/0
2	8	19/1
3	8	27/1
4	10	37/2
5	2	39/2
6	4	43/2
7	15	58/2
8	8	66/2
9	13	79/2
10	6	85/2
11	9	94/2
12	3	97/2
13	3	100/2
14	3	103/3
15	12	115/3
16	5	120/5
17	8	128/6
18	6	134/7
19	8	142/7
20	8	150/8

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