**Boland Park, Paarl**
Photo: Jshecket
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

MI Cape TownversusPaarl Royals

15 Jan 2025 · T20

Boland Park, Paarl · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Paarl Royals won by 6 wickets

MI Cape Town20.0 overs158/4 Paarl Royals19.0 overs159/4 Boland Park, Paarl ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

MI Cape Town started on 44%; MI Cape Town batted first.

MI Cape Town’s chance of winning (%) · Paarl Royals is the rest

MI Cape Town's chances ranged from 1% to 57% during the match (Paarl Royals: 43% to 99%).

Biggest swings

4.1: Dayyaan Galiem to Azmatullah Omarzai, Azmatullah Omarzai out. Paarl Royals up from 45% to 55%.
2nd inns 15.5: GF Linde to LG Pretorius, six by LG Pretorius. Paarl Royals up from 73% to 83%.
2nd inns 15.6: GF Linde to LG Pretorius, six by LG Pretorius. Paarl Royals up from 83% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.