ZimbabweversusBangladesh

15 Jul 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Zimbabwe won by 32 runs

Zimbabwe20.0 overs170/6 Bangladesh19.0 overs138/10 Queens Sports Club, Bulawayo ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Zimbabwe more likely to win

64%Zimbabwe36%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Zimbabwe rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,600 vs 1,491 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 7 and Zimbabwe won 3
Zimbabwe are playing at home in Zimbabwe

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 63%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 56% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 44%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.3: R Ngarava to Saif Hassan, Saif Hassan out. Zimbabwe up from 59% to 70%.
2nd inns 9.3: M Shumba to Towhid Hridoy, Towhid Hridoy out. Zimbabwe up from 71% to 84%.
2nd inns 16.4: B Muzarabani to Mahedi Hasan, Mahedi Hasan out. Zimbabwe up from 73% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe170/6 Bangladesh138/10

Innings 2

Bangladesh

138/1019.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Saif Hassancaught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · Richard Ngarava 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · b Richard Ngarava	12	15	2	0	80.00
Tanzid Hasancaught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · Richard Ngarava 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · b Richard Ngarava	16	8	3	0	200.00
Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Sikandar Raza · Blessing Muzarabani 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sikandar Raza · b Blessing Muzarabani	5	5	1	0	100.00
Tawhid Hridoycaught · Tashinga Musekiwa · Milton Shumba 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tashinga Musekiwa · b Milton Shumba	14	13	1	0	107.69

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	33	0	8.25	0
Richard Ngarava0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	4	6.50	2
Blessing Muzarabani1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	17	4	4.25	0
Ryan Burl0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	20	0	10.00	0
Brad Evans0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	22	0	7.33	2
Dion Myers0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	14	0	14.00	2
Milton Shumba0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	4	1	4.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	13	13/0
2	4	17/0
3	5	22/0
4	8	30/2
5	6	36/3
6	7	43/3
7	9	52/3
8	6	58/3
9	14	72/3
10	4	76/4
11	3	79/5
12	5	84/5
13	7	91/5
14	11	102/5
15	11	113/5
16	11	124/5
17	6	130/6
18	8	138/8
19	0	138/10

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