**Saxton Oval, Nelson**
Photo: Nelsonpubliclibraries
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2024/25 · Men

WellingtonversusCentral Districts

4 Jan 2025 · T20

Saxton Oval, Nelson · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Wellington won by 11 runs

Wellington20.0 overs190/5 Central Districts20.0 overs179/10 Saxton Oval, Nelson ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Wellington started on 48%; Wellington batted first.

Wellington’s chance of winning (%) · Central Districts is the rest

Wellington's chances ranged from 15% to 99% during the match (Central Districts: 1% to 85%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.6: PF Younghusband to AR Schaw, four by AR Schaw. Central Districts up from 61% to 85%.
2nd inns 18.4: LV van Beek to AR Schaw, AR Schaw out. Wellington up from 40% to 64%.
2nd inns 18.6: LV van Beek to W Clark, W Clark out. Wellington up from 72% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.