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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
England tour of Sri Lanka · 2025/26 · Men
24 Jan 2026 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 64%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Will Jacks · Adil Rashid 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Will Jacks · b Adil Rashid | 26 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 70.27 |
| Kamil Misharacaught · Ben Duckett · Jamie Overton 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Duckett · b Jamie Overton | 5 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 41.67 |
| Kusal Mendisrun out · Jos Buttler, Will Jacks · Liam Dawson 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jos Buttler, Will Jacks | 26 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 57.78 |
| Dhananjaya de Silvacaught · Joe Root · Liam Dawson 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Root · b Liam Dawson | 40 | 59 | 4 | 0 | 67.80 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Ben Duckett · Adil Rashid 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Duckett · b Adil Rashid | 45 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 70.31 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 72% during the match (England: 28% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Janith Liyanagecaught · Adil Rashid · Jamie Overton2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Adil Rashid · b Jamie Overton | 12 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 109.09 |
|---|
| Pavan Rathnayakecaught · Liam Dawson · Will Jacks 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Liam Dawson · b Will Jacks | 29 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 85.29 |
|---|
| Dunith Wellalagecaught · Sam Curran · Joe Root 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sam Curran · b Joe Root | 20 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 105.26 |
|---|
| Pramod Madushanstumped · Jos Buttler · Rehan Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Jos Buttler · b Rehan Ahmed | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 63.64 |
|---|
| Jeffrey Vandersaynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandocaught and bowled · Joe Root 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Joe Root | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jamie Overton1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 4.20 | 1 | 0 |
 Sam Curran0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 4.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Liam Dawson1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 4.70 | 1 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 3.40 | 1 | 0 |
| Jacob Bethell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Rehan Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 5.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Joe Root0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.3 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 5.20 | 0 | 0 |
1-16 (Kamil Mishara, 4.3) · 2-58 (Pathum Nissanka, 14.1) · 3-68 (Kusal Mendis, 17.1) · 4-134 (Dhananjaya de Silva, 32.4) · 5-151 (Janith Liyanage, 35.3) · 6-179 (Charith Asalanka, 41.4) · 7-193 (Pavan Rathnayake, 45.0) · 8-213 (Pramod Madushan, 48.2) · 9-219 (Dunith Wellalage, 49.2) · 10-219 (Asitha Fernando, 49.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 12/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 17/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 18/1 |
| 7 | 0 | 18/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 26/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 29/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 36/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 40/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 45/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 49/1 |
| 14 | 8 | 57/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 60/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 66/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 68/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 72/3 |
| 19 | 4 | 76/3 |
| 20 | 4 | 80/3 |
| 21 | 4 | 84/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 88/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 91/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 95/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 99/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 102/3 |
| 27 | 3 | 105/3 |
| 28 | 7 | 112/3 |
| 29 | 6 | 118/3 |
| 30 | 1 | 119/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 121/3 |
| 32 | 11 | 132/3 |
| 33 | 6 | 138/4 |
| 34 | 9 | 147/4 |
| 35 | 3 | 150/4 |
| 36 | 5 | 155/5 |
| 37 | 2 | 157/5 |
| 38 | 6 | 163/5 |
| 39 | 6 | 169/5 |
| 40 | 4 | 173/5 |
| 41 | 5 | 178/5 |
| 42 | 3 | 181/6 |
| 43 | 1 | 182/6 |
| 44 | 4 | 186/6 |
| 45 | 7 | 193/7 |
| 46 | 3 | 196/7 |
| 47 | 9 | 205/7 |
| 48 | 7 | 212/7 |
| 49 | 6 | 218/8 |
| 50 | 1 | 219/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rehan Ahmed: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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