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Photo: Jamaica1962
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South Africa tour of West Indies · 2024 · Men
25 May 2024 · T20
Sabina Park · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 66%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 63%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reeza Hendricksbowled · Roston Chase2 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Roston Chase | 34 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 188.89 |
 Quinton de Kockbowled · Akeal Hosein4 fours · 4 sixes | bowled · b Akeal Hosein | 41 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 241.18 |
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Kyle Mayers · Romario Shepherd2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kyle Mayers · b Romario Shepherd | 19 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 111.76 |
| Matthew Breetzkerun out · Andre Fletcher, Shamar Joseph · Roston Chase 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Andre Fletcher, Shamar Joseph |
| 12 |
| 16 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 75.00 |
| HE van der Dussencaught · Akeal Hosein · Gudakesh Motie 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Akeal Hosein · b Gudakesh Motie | 30 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 136.36 |
|---|
| Andile Phehlukwayocaught · Shamar Joseph · Gudakesh Motie 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shamar Joseph · b Gudakesh Motie | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Wiaan Muldercaught · Akeal Hosein · Gudakesh Motie1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Akeal Hosein · b Gudakesh Motie | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 112.50 |
|---|
| Bjorn Fortuinnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 12 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Nqaba Peternot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 7 | 1 | 0 | 142.86 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 13 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kyle Mayers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 0 | 2 |
| Obed McCoy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 16.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Shamar Joseph0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 21.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 8 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 15.00 | 8 | 1 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 3 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 3 | 0 |
| Fabian Allen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-81 (Quinton de Kock, 5.0) · 2-83 (Reeza Hendricks, 5.3) · 3-113 (Matthew Breetzke, 9.5) · 4-124 (Ryan Rickelton, 12.0) · 5-138 (Andile Phehlukwayo, 14.3) · 6-166 (HE van der Dussen, 16.3) · 7-167 (Wiaan Mulder, 17.0)
Recorded target: 208 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 20/0 |
| 3 | 18 | 38/0 |
| 4 | 21 | 59/0 |
| 5 | 22 | 81/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 85/2 |
| 7 | 12 | 97/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 103/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 108/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 113/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 119/3 |
| 12 | 5 | 124/4 |
| 13 | 5 | 129/4 |
| 14 | 7 | 136/4 |
| 15 | 6 | 142/5 |
| 16 | 18 | 160/5 |
| 17 | 7 | 167/7 |
| 18 | 4 | 171/7 |
| 19 | 11 | 182/7 |
| 20 | 9 | 191/7 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kyle Mayers: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Reeza Hendricks: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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