OneTipOneHand
Bringing the game to you…
Loading your next view.
THE WORLD OF CRICKET. CONNECTED. One game. A global community.
OneTipOneHand
Loading your next view.
Spot an error, a missing record or a photograph that needs attention?
Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia tour of Sri Lanka · 2024/25 · Men
12 Feb 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 41%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 19% to 100% during the match (Australia: 1% to 82%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Alex Carey · Spencer Johnson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Spencer Johnson | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Avishka Fernandocaught · Steve Smith · Aaron Hardie 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Aaron Hardie | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Matthew Short · Aaron Hardie 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Short · b Aaron Hardie | 19 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 111.76 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Jake Fraser-McGurk · Spencer Johnson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jake Fraser-McGurk · b Spencer Johnson | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Jake Fraser-McGurk · Sean Abbott 14 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Jake Fraser-McGurk · b Sean Abbott | 127 | 126 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 14 |
| 5 |
| 100.79 |
 Janith Liyanagecaught · Steve Smith · Sean Abbott0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Sean Abbott | 11 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 37.93 |
|---|
| Dunith Wellalagecaught · Steve Smith · Matthew Short 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Matthew Short | 30 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 88.24 |
|---|
 Wanindu Hasarangabowled · Nathan Ellis0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Ellis | 7 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshanacaught · Alex Carey · Nathan Ellis 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Nathan Ellis | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 18.18 |
|---|
| Eshan Malinganot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 26 | 0 | 0 | 3.85 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandocaught · Alex Carey · Sean Abbott 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Sean Abbott | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Johnson0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 44 | 2 | 6.29 | 2 | 0 |
| Aaron Hardie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 2.17 | 0 | 0 |
 Sean Abbott0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 61 | 3 | 6.78 | 1 | 1 |
| Nathan Ellis2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 2.56 | 1 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Short0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Pathum Nissanka, 0.5) · 2-6 (Avishka Fernando, 2.0) · 3-30 (Kusal Mendis, 5.2) · 4-31 (Kamindu Mendis, 6.2) · 5-55 (Janith Liyanage, 14.3) · 6-122 (Dunith Wellalage, 25.5) · 7-133 (Wanindu Hasaranga, 30.1) · 8-135 (Mahesh Theekshana, 32.2) · 9-214 (Charith Asalanka, 45.3) · 10-214 (Asitha Fernando, 46.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 6/2 |
| 3 | 5 | 11/2 |
| 4 | 2 | 13/2 |
| 5 | 13 | 26/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 30/3 |
| 7 | 5 | 35/4 |
| 8 | 1 | 36/4 |
| 9 | 3 | 39/4 |
| 10 | 0 | 39/4 |
| 11 | 1 | 40/4 |
| 12 | 3 | 43/4 |
| 13 | 9 | 52/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 55/4 |
| 15 | 7 | 62/5 |
| 16 | 3 | 65/5 |
| 17 | 15 | 80/5 |
| 18 | 6 | 86/5 |
| 19 | 4 | 90/5 |
| 20 | 4 | 94/5 |
| 21 | 7 | 101/5 |
| 22 | 1 | 102/5 |
| 23 | 7 | 109/5 |
| 24 | 5 | 114/5 |
| 25 | 6 | 120/5 |
| 26 | 2 | 122/6 |
| 27 | 2 | 124/6 |
| 28 | 4 | 128/6 |
| 29 | 2 | 130/6 |
| 30 | 3 | 133/6 |
| 31 | 1 | 134/7 |
| 32 | 1 | 135/7 |
| 33 | 0 | 135/8 |
| 34 | 5 | 140/8 |
| 35 | 1 | 141/8 |
| 36 | 1 | 142/8 |
| 37 | 7 | 149/8 |
| 38 | 5 | 154/8 |
| 39 | 5 | 159/8 |
| 40 | 7 | 166/8 |
| 41 | 14 | 180/8 |
| 42 | 5 | 185/8 |
| 43 | 3 | 188/8 |
| 44 | 11 | 199/8 |
| 45 | 9 | 208/8 |
| 46 | 6 | 214/10 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
_(Marnus_Labuschagne_cropped).jpg){kind=link}
.jpg){kind=link}
