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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia tour of Sri Lanka · 2024/25 · Men
12 Feb 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 41%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 19% to 100% during the match (Australia: 1% to 82%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Shortlbw · Asitha Fernando 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Asitha Fernando | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jake Fraser-McGurkcaught and bowled · Asitha Fernando 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
| Cooper Connollylbw · Mahesh Theekshana 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mahesh Theekshana | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 18.75 |
 Steve Smithbowled · Dunith Wellalage3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dunith Wellalage | 12 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 70.59 |
 Marnus Labuschagne |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Mahesh Theekshana |
| 15 |
| 27 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 55.56 |
 Alex Careycaught · Pathum Nissanka · Charith Asalanka5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Pathum Nissanka · b Charith Asalanka | 41 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 107.89 |
|---|
| Aaron Hardielbw · Wanindu Hasaranga 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 32 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 86.49 |
|---|
 Sean Abbottcaught and bowled · Mahesh Theekshana3 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Mahesh Theekshana | 20 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 86.96 |
|---|
| Nathan Ellisbowled · Dunith Wellalage 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dunith Wellalage | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Adam Zampanot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 20* | 29 | 2 | 0 | 68.97 |
|---|
| Spencer Johnsonlbw · Mahesh Theekshana 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mahesh Theekshana | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 15 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 4.60 | 5 | 0 |
| Eshan Malinga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana1 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 1 | 40 | 4 | 4.07 | 7 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 4.71 | 3 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 7.83 | 0 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Matthew Short, 0.2) · 2-7 (Jake Fraser-McGurk, 2.4) · 3-18 (Cooper Connolly, 5.3) · 4-31 (Steve Smith, 9.1) · 5-83 (Marnus Labuschagne, 17.3) · 6-85 (Alex Carey, 18.2) · 7-126 (Sean Abbott, 26.0) · 8-127 (Nathan Ellis, 26.4) · 9-145 (Aaron Hardie, 31.0) · 10-165 (Spencer Johnson, 33.5)
Recorded target: 215 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 5 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 7/2 |
| 4 | 5 | 12/2 |
| 5 | 6 | 18/2 |
| 6 | 0 | 18/3 |
| 7 | 8 | 26/3 |
| 8 | 1 | 27/3 |
| 9 | 4 | 31/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 36/4 |
| 11 | 2 | 38/4 |
| 12 | 7 | 45/4 |
| 13 | 7 | 52/4 |
| 14 | 8 | 60/4 |
| 15 | 15 | 75/4 |
| 16 | 2 | 77/4 |
| 17 | 4 | 81/4 |
| 18 | 4 | 85/5 |
| 19 | 1 | 86/6 |
| 20 | 9 | 95/6 |
| 21 | 3 | 98/6 |
| 22 | 5 | 103/6 |
| 23 | 5 | 108/6 |
| 24 | 7 | 115/6 |
| 25 | 6 | 121/6 |
| 26 | 5 | 126/7 |
| 27 | 1 | 127/8 |
| 28 | 3 | 130/8 |
| 29 | 6 | 136/8 |
| 30 | 5 | 141/8 |
| 31 | 4 | 145/9 |
| 32 | 10 | 155/9 |
| 33 | 7 | 162/9 |
| 34 | 3 | 165/10 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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