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ICC Men's T20 World Cup East Asia-Pacific Qualifier · 2026 · Men
16 May 2026 · T20
Sano International Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Vanuatu started on 45%; Vanuatu batted first.
Vanuatu's chances ranged from 5% to 62% during the match (Indonesia: 38% to 95%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Rasucaught · Gede Arta · Kavin Chaddha 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gede Arta · b Kavin Chaddha | 27 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 77.14 |
| Clement Tommylbw · Gede Arta 2 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Gede Arta | 27 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 135.00 |
| Andrew Mansalecaught · Anjar Tadarus · Kavin Chaddha 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anjar Tadarus · b Kavin Chaddha | 11 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 45.83 |
| JP Kaltapaurun out · Dharma Kesuma, F Banunaek · Kavin Chaddha 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Dharma Kesuma, F Banunaek | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Nalin Nipikocaught · Dharma Kesuma · F Banunaek 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dharma Kesuma · b F Banunaek | 9 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
| caught · Ketut Artawan · b Kavin Chaddha |
| 0 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| W Wotubowled · Ketut Artawan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ketut Artawan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Patrick Matautaavarun out · Sudhakar Jegannathan, Anjar Tadarus · Sudhakar Jegannathan 0 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Sudhakar Jegannathan, Anjar Tadarus | 16 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 145.45 |
|---|
| Tim Cutlerbowled · Sudhakar Jegannathan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sudhakar Jegannathan | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Williamsing Nalisanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F Banunaek0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Sudhakar Jegannathan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Danilson Hawoe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Gede Arta0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ketut Artawan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Kavin Chaddha1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-45 (Clement Tommy, 6.4) · 2-61 (Joshua Rasu, 11.3) · 3-70 (Andrew Mansale, 14.0) · 4-74 (JP Kaltapau, 15.2) · 5-74 (N Venables, 16.0) · 6-81 (W Wotu, 16.4) · 7-92 (Nalin Nipiko, 18.4) · 8-99 (Tim Cutler, 19.3) · 9-102 (Patrick Matautaava, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 27/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 34/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 43/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 47/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 50/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 58/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 60/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 61/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 65/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 68/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 70/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 74/3 |
| 16 | 0 | 74/5 |
| 17 | 10 | 84/6 |
| 18 | 7 | 91/6 |
| 19 | 1 | 92/7 |
| 20 | 10 | 102/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.