**County Ground, Northampton**
Photo: John Sutton
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

DerbyshireversusNorthamptonshire

30 May 2024 · T20

County Ground, Northampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 5 wickets

Derbyshire20.0 overs162/7 Northamptonshire20.0 overs163/5 County Ground, Northampton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Derbyshire started on 49%; Derbyshire batted first.

Derbyshire’s chance of winning (%) · Northamptonshire is the rest

Derbyshire's chances ranged from 9% to 68% during the match (Northamptonshire: 32% to 91%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.5: PR Brown to SA Zaib, SA Zaib out. Derbyshire up from 24% to 47%.
2nd inns 19.1: LM Reece to RS Bopara, six by RS Bopara. Northamptonshire up from 34% to 72%.
2nd inns 19.5: LM Reece to LD McManus, four by LD McManus. Northamptonshire up from 55% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.