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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025/26 · Men
26 Oct 2025 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 48%; United States of America batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smit Patelrun out · Gulsan Jha, Sompal Kami · Sompal Kami 9 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Gulsan Jha, Sompal Kami | 75 | 100 | 9 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Andries Gouscaught · B Sharki · Sompal Kami 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · B Sharki · b Sompal Kami | 11 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 37.93 |
| Monank Patellbw · Aarif Sheikh 0 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Aarif Sheikh | 10 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 58.82 |
| Saiteja Mukkamallabowled · Sandeep Lamichhane 3 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 42 | 58 | 3 | 1 | 72.41 |
| Milind Kumarnot out 6 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 70* | 50 | 6 | 2 | 140.00 |
United States of America's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (Nepal: 0% to 59%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Aarif Sheikh · b Dipendra Singh Airee |
| 11 |
| 17 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 64.71 |
 Shubham Ranjanecaught · Gulsan Jha · Sandeep Lamichhane1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gulsan Jha · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 19 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 82.61 |
|---|
| Harmeet Singhnot out 0 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 16* | 6 | 0 | 2 | 266.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Karan KC2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 56 | 0 | 5.60 | 1 | 0 |
 Sompal Kami0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 56 | 1 | 6.22 | 3 | 0 |
 Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Aarif Sheikh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 3.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 56 | 2 | 5.60 | 1 | 0 |
 Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-17 (Andries Gous, 7.2) · 2-48 (Monank Patel, 13.5) · 3-143 (Smit Patel, 32.5) · 4-145 (Saiteja Mukkamalla, 34.3) · 5-171 (Shayan Jahangir, 39.2) · 6-227 (Shubham Ranjane, 47.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 3/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 4/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 8/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 16/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 21/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 23/1 |
| 10 | 9 | 32/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 37/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 38/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 46/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 48/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 52/2 |
| 16 | 7 | 59/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 63/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 66/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 70/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 72/2 |
| 21 | 12 | 84/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 86/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 90/2 |
| 24 | 2 | 92/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 97/2 |
| 26 | 5 | 102/2 |
| 27 | 6 | 108/2 |
| 28 | 4 | 112/2 |
| 29 | 0 | 112/2 |
| 30 | 9 | 121/2 |
| 31 | 11 | 132/2 |
| 32 | 7 | 139/2 |
| 33 | 4 | 143/3 |
| 34 | 2 | 145/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 147/4 |
| 36 | 9 | 156/4 |
| 37 | 6 | 162/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 166/4 |
| 39 | 2 | 168/4 |
| 40 | 3 | 171/5 |
| 41 | 10 | 181/5 |
| 42 | 4 | 185/5 |
| 43 | 6 | 191/5 |
| 44 | 6 | 197/5 |
| 45 | 14 | 211/5 |
| 46 | 5 | 216/5 |
| 47 | 8 | 224/5 |
| 48 | 6 | 230/6 |
| 49 | 13 | 243/6 |
| 50 | 19 | 262/6 |
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
